Handicapping 2010

The 2011 Senate

"Cum 'on, train!" On January 6th the Weekly Standard's  Matthew Continnetti handicapped the Republican chances of taking the Senate. Let's see how that's working out. Connecticut - Dodd was toast, but popular Connecticut AG Dick Blumenthal, a Democrat, is expected to announce tomorrow that he'll run for Dodd's seat, and an early poll shows him winning by 30 points. Rasmussen -Blumenthal leading former GOP Congressman Rob Simmons 56% to 33%. A month ago, Simmons had a 13-point lead over Dodd. NC North Dakota - North Dakota governor John Hoeven, a Republican, is expected to run for Dorgan's seat and win handily. Gov. John Hoeven has announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate seat - Unless something absolutely unforeseen happens, Hoeven will become the Republican Party nominee to run + Nevada - Senate majority leader Harry Reid as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent; Reid has a high disapproval rating and trails his Republican challengers in polls. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in Nevada finds Reid earning just 36% of the vote against his two top Republican challengers. That’s a seven-point drop from 43% a month ago. Reid, who is seeking a fifth term, received 61% of the final vote in 2004.Real Clear Politics - Tarkanian +10 over Reid + Republican chances of flipping Democratic seats in Delaware, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Colorado also look good. Delaware - Rasmussen Reports Castle +5 RCP Average  Castle +1.7 Illinois - RCP AVG Giannoulias (D) +3 PPP - Even Pennsylvania - Rasmussen - Toomey (R) +9 Colorado - Rasmussen Frazier (R) +1 + ? + + And with the right candidate, the GOP could also be competitive in the New York, California, and Arkansas races. Heck, the GOP seems to be competitive in Massachusetts right now. New York RCP AVG Pataki (R) +.5  Rasmussen Reports Gillibrand (D) +3 California - Rasmussen Reports  Boxer (D) + 3 Arkansas -Rasmussen Reports Hendren (R) +8 ? ? + So let's follow Toby Harnden's lead and say Republicans hold on to seats in Florida, New Hampshire, Kentucky, Ohio, Louisiana, and Missouri. And let's say they sweep the competitions listed above. Even if the Republicans sweep the field without losing any ground--this probably won't happen--Harnden notes that the GOP would control 49 seats and the Democrats would control 51. Harnden: But what if Joe Lieberman (I) flipped to the Republican party? Very possible, particularly if he was induced with a juicy committee chairmanship. That would mean 50-50. But still Vice-President Joe Biden would hold the casting vote. Even in this (wildly optimistic) scenario, then, Republicans still wouldn't control the Senate. Unless, of course, Scott Brown defeats Martha Coakley this month in Massachusetts ... ” Click-Click