Poll Trix

90 Proof

HillBuzz does an excellent job of  charting how the media polls are weighted for success - Obama's success. Here's a summary, but go look. “ Here are two charts:  the first one shows the biased poll that shortchanges Republican party ID, and the second poll shows a more realistic party ID breakdown — note the difference: an 11-point Obama lead shrinks down to just 4-points when correct party ID breakdown is used. ” I have a minor quibble with the HillBuzz historical weighting giving Democrats a 4% advantage. Examination of the 2004 election showed a 50-50 split between Democrats and Republicans who voted. Ann Coulter here examines  the historic record ... “ With an African-American running for president this year, there has been a lot of chatter about the "Bradley effect," allowing the media to wail about institutional racism in America. Named after Tom Bradley, who lost his election for California governor in 1982 despite a substantial lead in the polls, the Bradley effect says that black candidates will poll much stronger than the actual election results. First of all, if true, this is the opposite of racism: It is fear of being accused of racism. For most Americans, there is nothing more terrifying than the prospect of being called a racist. It's scarier than flood or famine, terrorist attacks or flesh-eating bacteria. To some, it's even scarier than "food insecurity." g Reviewing the polls printed in the New York Times and the Washington Post in the last month of every presidential election since 1976, I found the polls were never wrong in a friendly way to Republicans. When the polls were wrong, which was often, they overestimated support for the Democrat, usually by about 6 to 10 points. ”