Everything -- Except the Polls --

2012   Everything -- Except the Polls -- Points to a Romney Landslide “ BEGIN TRANSCRIPT RUSH:  Well, the Drive-Bys are all excited because Romney has announced he's going back to Ohio tomorrow.  On Election Day, Romney is going to Ohio, and the Drive-Bys are trying to interpret that as meaning it's slipping away.  Romney has to head back into Ohio on Election Day because it's slipping away.  The Drive-Bys are all excited by their own polling data. But then I go back to: "Why would CNN put a poll out...? If it's that easy to figure out this poll is wrong, why would they do it?" Well, the answer is: "Well, they're in the tank for Obama and they want to do anything they can to help." ... You know, common sense tells me this election isn't gonna be close and shouldn't be.  And yet every poll, every single poll, has this race tied.  Obama's up one, down one, tied, doesn't matter where you go, 'til you get into the internals, then it gets really confusing or it doesn't make any sense. I'm just gonna be honest with you, for the longest time -- and you people that have been regular listeners know this.  I have said that as we get down to the election, the polls are gonna reflect what's really gonna happen because the pollsters want to get it right for the future.  That has not happened.  It has not happened.  There's not one poll that gives either candidate an edge, not one pollster is willing to stick his neck out here.  They're all saying that this is tied, every which way from Sunday, at least in the overall popular vote, national surveys.  Now, when you get into the internals it looks a little odd, and we're gonna do that here at the beginning. Now, for example, let's look at the latest CNN poll, the final CNN national poll.  It has the race tied at 49.  By the way, in none of these national polls is Barack Obama at 50, and they keep telling us, they've told us for decades, for years, for months, for weeks, that an incumbent who doesn't get to 50 is in big trouble, and that traditionally has been true.  Here are the internals of the CNN poll.  The sample is Democrat plus 11.  The Democrat turnout margin in 2008 was plus seven.  They're saying it's going to be plus 11 Democrats tomorrow in this poll.  In 2004 and 2010, it was even, the Democrats and Republicans were evenly split.  In addition to all of this, in addition to a Democrat sample of plus 11, Romney is up 22 points with independents. In 2000 ...  I said the race was either Gore plus one or two or it was tied, Gore-Bush. I said, "Paula, I just don't believe the polls. I don't think these polls are anywhere near accurate." Well they were, as we all know. They were. In fact, Gore won the popular vote in 2000. So I'm a little reticent to just reject these polls. I've been bitten once doing that. But still, you know, all of my thinking says Romney big. I so profoundly disagree with that but simply in common sense, not scientifically.  I'm not a pollster, I'm just a common sense observer.  I look at what caused the massive 2010 Republican turnout and then I ask myself, has anything changed since 2010?  Yeah, it's gotten worse.  The enthusiasm that got people out in 2010 I'm seeing at every Mitt Romney rally.  ... ... Romney's drawing crowds of 20,000, 25,000, 30,000, 15,000.  The enthusiasm that we all saw in 2010 is there.  The same issues that existed in 2010 exist today.  There hasn't been anything that's gotten better. ... BREAK TRANSCRIPT RUSH: Now, in this CNN poll, one other thing about it. You have to go down to the 29th page of the PDF file to find their methodology. That Democrat-plus-11 sample? It's page 29 on the CNN release. In other words, they don't expect anybody to get anywhere near discovering that that is their sample in their poll. [Full transcript - do read the whole thing] I'm feeling the same way.  I can't think of a time where I felt so in the mainstream of American "feeling"  as I do now ( I'm citing just two- 1980, and 2010) , and was wrong about the election.  Still, any nation capable of reelecting Bill Clinton, or electing an unknown leftist like Obama, is capable of anything.  I am still confident, but this helped. ”