For
now, at least, Hillary Clinton has a 76 percent chance of defeating
Donald Trump to become president of the United States.
A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of
losing is about the same probability that an N.B.A. player will miss a
free throw.
This electoral probability, the first forecast by the Upshot’s
presidential prediction model, is based on the voting history of each
state and on roughly 300 state and national polls of the race conducted
since mid-April.
Our model suggests Mrs. Clinton is a strong favorite in 14 states and
the District of Columbia, enough to give her 186 of the 270 electoral
votes she needs to win the White House. Add to this eight more states
that polls currently show are leaning Democratic — including Minnesota,
Michigan and Pennsylvania — and Mrs. Clinton would have 275 electoral
votes and the presidency.
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