Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Occam's razor election

I'm going with Occam's razor


Blah-blah-blah.  The truth of the matter is Republicans made themselves vulnerable with their fiscal irresponsibility, and the media made it possible for democrats to run on virtually no issues.  Those they did espouse were done behind a veil of lies and distortions (stem cells) much like the 1992 "Worst economy in our nations history" Clint-lie was allowed to stand,  unchallenged, by a sycophant media.  In the final analysis though, I think it's probably nothing more than this ...
The average first midterm election loss for every elected president since 1914 is 27 House seats and three Senate seats. The average sixth-year midterm election, like this year, is much worse for the president's party, which typically loses 34 seats in the House and six seats in the Senate.

This makes the average loss in two midterm elections for the party in the White House: 30 House seats and four or five Senate seats in each midterm election.

In his first midterm election, George W. Bush picked up six House seats and two Senate seats — making him, according to The New York Times, "the first Republican president to gain House seats in an off-year election" and only the third president of either party to pick up House seats in a midterm election since the Civil War.

This means that for Democrats simply to match the historical average gain for the party out of the White House during the first and second midterm, they would have to pick up 67 seats in the House and 11 seats in the Senate. They're about 30 Mark Foleys short of having that happen.

It at least seems clear that Democrat gains this year are going to fall far short of the historical average. No poll has the Democrats winning even half of their rightful midterm gains.

Despite the precedent of big wins in midterm elections for the party out of power — especially in a sixth-year midterm election — something is depressing the Democrats' popularity with Americans this year. I suspect it's the perception that many of them are Democrats.

But instead of recognizing that the Democratic Party is a dying party, falling far short of its due historical gains, any gain by the Democrats will be hailed as a crowning mandate for the party that wants to lose the Iraq war, shut down Guantanamo and stop spying on Islamic terrorists on U.S. soil.

Even a dying party has death throes. If Democrats win a slight majority in the House or Senate, Americans will get shrill, insane leadership of the nation in time of war.

Democrats can't not be crazy. They will instantly set to work enacting a national gay marriage law, impeachment hearings, slavery reparations and a series of new federal felonies for abortion clinic protesters. The only way to get Democrats to focus on terrorists would be to convince them that the terrorists are interfering with a woman's right to choose or that commercial jetliners exploding in midair are a threat to America's wetlands. -- "Jihad is Fun! Support the Left!"

2 comments:

Spunky Texan said...

I am so confused by this whole thing.

Yes, WE have wasted the last 12 years in the house, and WE have wasted the last 6 years in the Senate. As much as I love Bush, he was NOT strong enough, and spend to much time focusing on "bi-partisanship". Changes are needed, BUT, not at the cost of Iraq and the GWOT.

Rummies out now.

Rodger the Real King of France said...

Odds that Caesar crosses the Rubicon, sooner or later, are now 3.8 in 10.

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