Sunday, November 26, 2006

Skoonj


Damian Housman (Skoonj) is a long time denizen of C&S.  He forwarded this end of a e-mail correspondence with Barry Farber, and I'm reprinting it because I can't disagree with even a comma (almost).

Sent: Wednesday, November 15, 2006 7:42 PM
Subject: Re: Last Election

Thanks, Damian, for taking the time to put that entire package on paper.  I hope you didn't do it just for me.  What you say deserves a much wider American audience.

Best greetings,

Barry

Barry,
 
I said I would get into the war, and I will.  Two wars.
 
Recently there has been criticism of the administration and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.  The problem is that those who criticize openly question going to war, not the methodology employed.  I don't question going to war, though I prefer using other means of gaining our goals where possible.  But we are a sovereign nation, and we will go to war when we find it in our interest. 
 
Recently there has been some criticism from those who question methodology.  This is important, since prior to this you either supported the war and the way it's fought, or you opposed the war, and if you are a Democrat, try to sabotage it.  I have read some columns and articles by Ralph Peters, who is saying things I am saying.  For instance, he said this after the raid on an Iraqi research institute, in which many were kidnapped:
 
"YESTERDAY, 80 terrorists in police uniforms raided an Iraqi research institute in Baghdad, rounded up 100-plus male students, loaded them into vehicles in broad daylight and drove away.

"They couldn’t have pulled it off without the complicity of key elements within the Iraqi security services and the government: “our guys.”

"The students probably will be executed and dumped somewhere. Partly for the crime of wanting to study and build a future, but primarily just to step up the level of terror yet again.

"What really matters is what our forces are ordered - and permitted - to do. With political correctness permeating our government and even the upper echelons of the military, we never tried the one technique that has a solid track record of defeating insurgents if applied consistently: the rigorous imposition of public order.

"That means killing the bad guys. Not winning their hearts and minds, placating them or bringing them into the government. Killing them.

"If you’re not willing to lay down a rule that any Iraqi or foreign terrorist masquerading as a security official or military member will be shot, you can’t win. And that’s just one example of the type of sternness this sort of fight requires.

"With the situation in Iraq deteriorating daily, sending more troops would simply offer our enemies more targets - unless we decided to use our soldiers and Marines for the primary purpose for which they exist: To fight.

"Any code of ethics that squanders the lives of tens of thousands and the future of millions so we can “claim the moral high ground” is hypocrisy worthy of the Europeans who made excuses for the Holocaust.

"If we want to give Iraq’s silent - and terrified - majority a last chance, we would have to accept the world’s condemnation for killing the killers. If we are unwilling to do that, Iraq’s finished."

This is the problem in a nutshell.  These things continue to happen because we insist on fighting a politically correct war.  We don't KILL the bad guys!  We detain them!  I don't know about you, but that wouldn't scare me, and I don't think it would scare an Iraqi terrorist.  We have to KILL them.  We should have gone into the war that way.  Uniformed enemy, fine, you are prisoners of war.  Not wearing a uniform and we catch you attacking us?  Killed, on the spot.  My preference is to hang the body from a lamp post as a warning to the others.  We DID do that in wars we won, by the way, all the way back to the Revolution.  If we didn't detain them, could there be an Abu Graib?  Could there be a Guantanamo?
 
What is going on is really the Vietnamization of the war.  Had we gone in brutally and harshly, and killed the terrorists from the start, the terrorists would never have had a chance to organize into a force like they have today.  It would either be over or nearly so.  Why do I say Vietnamization?  Because, as in Vietnam, we cannot win the way we fight.  We can only regulate the rate at which we lose.  I sure wish Peters were to be Secretary of Defense instead of Gates.  We would have a chance of winning that we don't have today.
 
Afghanistan is an illustration not only of PC war, but of the way I would want one fought.  After getting the Taliban and al Qaeda fighters (and leaders) to blunder into a massive martialling of their forces at Tora Bora, we saw we didn't have enough US troops to finish them off.  Mistake.  The next mistake was allowing our Afghan allies to negotiate a cease fire for negotiations, at which point the enemy escaped through the hills.  Stupid on several levels.  Let's just wonder why Bush didn't use a tactical nuclear weapon there to finish the enemy.  And establish that we will, indeed, use any weapon we feel is necessary.  Bin Laden and his pals would not have escaped.  We wouldn't be chasing him through the hills and valleys of the back of beyond.  It would have been ended.
 
As I've said before, nuclear weapons must be seen as a viable option, and not just a theoretical one.  I do not believe in spilling the blood of American troops as a substitute for the use of the best, most appropriate weapon we have available.  To do otherwise is military malpractice.  Bush is no better than Lyndon Johnson or Jimmy Carter.
 
I just want it clear that to back "the war" doesn't necessarily mean backing the way the military malpractitioner is conducting it.  By making PC war, he insures we can never win.  I will never back a Republican for president who does not understand the difference between victory in war and waging PC war.  And I have seen NO potential candidates coming along I would trust.
 
Damian

19 comments:

Rodger the Real King of France said...

I do have a quibble with Damian lumping Bush in with Carter and Johnson. The latter two were arrogant micro-managers, while Bush has given his military team loose rein. We had a narrow window of opportunity which Bush lost when the left coalesced to undermine us. The nether regions of Pakistan ought to have been tac-nuked early on, as well as Iran - any single target would have done the job. I suppose it was unreasonable of me to expect that traitors in the CIA - a paramilitary organization for gawd's sake- who were subverting our policy be arrested, and punished for their treason. Or that those media popinjays, who purposely leaked secrets, be tried and executed, but that's what was called for.

Anonymous said...

Is this the same skoonj that, over at KisP, declared his decision to not vote because of the online poker ban?

I guess it took him this long to think up a better sounding whine.

Anonymous said...

Well, Stoo, this is an entirely different subject. On KisP, the subject was what happened in the election. I didn't vote, because of the internet gambling vote. My Congressman is a Democrat who is generally conservative. He voted with the ban. His opponent, a generally conservative Republican, would have voted the same. Sorry, but neither of these guys will ever get my vote, since they have chosen to vote against ME. I insist on the same right as nearly the entire internet-connected world, to play poker online. What form of sludge votes against that? And what form of sludge (Frist) attaches the ban to an unreleated measure in the Senate, and it passes without debate. The international community, by the way, has chosen not to look the other way this time. Congress will have to change or pay for this.

Now we come to the connection between that situation and this. Congress figure it could get away with the online gambling ban because they feel they are being politically correct, appealing to the greatest number of Americans and offending the least number. So, too, is the reason for not using our weaponry as we could have, or treating the enemy as we should have. Political correctness. The sludge do it that way because they feel they will offend the least number, and remain in office.

I suppose you had nothing to say about this issue. On KisP, I was glad to respond to anyone who wrote a comment pertaining to the subject.

Skoonj

Rodger the Real King of France said...

I don't care who the messenger is, as long as I like the message.

Anonymous said...

You chose to not participate in the election. You have no right to argue anything anymore -- not that you'll quit whining, as this post demonstrates.

Anonymous said...

Stoo,

An ignoramus and his pet rock are rarely parted.

Skoonj

Chap said...

The guy's pet rock is squishy. Prima donna won't vote because he's too freaking pristine to deal with the real world. Good for you--we're all so proud.

"Didn't have enough troops in Tora Bora". Expletives. Guy apparently thinks troopies magically appear via Star Trek transporters or something. Ever look at a calendar and a map, there, Patton? Tora Bora is additionally somehow "PC", for some reason or another--perhaps they had a rainbow flag! It's so useful to refight battles--not campaigns, battles--five years later, as strategies. Great job, von Clausewitz.

Rodge, this is kiddie table analysis. Peters' article by itself would have been nice, though.

Anonymous said...

I see your point, Skoonj. Personally, I don't give a damn about online gambling one way or another. I understand that you are using the issue as a bellweather and I suppose that that is just as good a method as any. However, to use this as an excuse to not vote is stupid. It's not like Packs and Donks are the only choices. True, the other parties seem like a huge waste of effort, but if people would go vote for them - if only to send a message to the major parties - instead of opting out, maybe they wouldn't be so marginal. By not voting, the only thing you accomplish is to make your opinions meaningless.

Spot on post, Rodger.
GrinfilledCelt

Anonymous said...

Rodger, there is little to be gained by voting for one bunch of socialists over another. I used to vote for candidates who said they were for lower taxes, less intrusive and smaller government. My candidates won much more often than they lost. What did we get? Higher government spending, more entitlements, more cabinet departments, more intrusive government, fewer rights. Why is one group of politicians better than another?

I play poker online almost every day. So do people from South Africa, Mexico, virtually all of Europs, and Asia. Tell me, why should Mexicans have more rights than I do? Is everyone on the right so caught up in their campaigns against the left that they miss the fact that they have fewer liberties than before, and this happened under a Republican President and Republican Congress? Maybe loss of liberty means nothing to them, but I'm a libertarian, and take the Constitution more seriously than they, or the Republican politicians have.

Maybe some people prefer Hitler's Germany, where people HAD to vote. It was compulsory. Apparently freedoms mean little or nothing to them. By the way, I've been in GA less than two years. Could not care less about the local politics around here, and will leave in less than two. However, the Democrat was probably the better candidate than the Republican. If not for the fact that he voted for the internet gambling ban, I would have voted for the Democrat.

Oh Chap, I didn't say anything about getting more TROOPS to Tora Bora. I said NUKE IT!!!! Could have been done, wasn't, and we have lost in Afghanistan. And Iraq. Maybe you thought it was best the way Bush did it, but I don't. And I place him in the same political PC toilet as his old man (who could have taken Iraq if he wasn't a PC president himself), Clinton, Johnson and Carter.

Skoonj

Anonymous said...

Rodger, what do you mean"Bush has given his military team loose rein"
Wheres the buck stop?Bush may go down as the worst president ever because of the magnitude of evil the United States is dealing with.
Gambling? The way we're headed under Sharia law we won't be bothered by small things like that.You may scoff at that but, everyday they're eroding are beliefs while empowering theirs.Right here at SeaTac airport yesterday six muslims prayed in front of an airline counter over the treatment of the assholes on the plane last week.Did they get arrested?No.Try that with six Christians.

Chap said...

Heh. I do nukes for a living. You are as uninformed as you are silly.

Try thinking through the effects of expending a nuclear weapon on how others with those weapons act towards us, hmm? Not to mention how many innocent lives you kill using one--which if you might remember took us a couple of years to warm up to in WWII (Dresden, Tokyo).

Feh. Definitely kiddie table.

Anonymous said...

Chap, you're not the only one who has dealt with nukes for a living. I did for several years. And what will the Taliban do to us with their nukes? Or al Qaeda? They don't have nukes, and won't get them unless we allow them to. In fact, had we used a tactical nuke at Tora Bora, we wouldn't be dealing with them now. And we wouldn't worry about whether Iran might palm off one to al Qaeda, since there wouldn't be an al Qaeda.

As for others with nukes and how they act toward us, just what do you think they will do? Threaten us? Knowing we have just recently actually used them? How about North Korea and Iran? How do they look on us now that they know we won't use them? Simple answer: they ignore us, and rightly so.

I guess we can chalk you up as in favor of politically correct war. I'm against. I don't believe the blood of our troops is a suitable substitute for using our best weapons for a job, and that includes nukes where appropriate. And you must be for coddling the enemy in jails rather than killing them on the spot. Sorry, none of this PC crap for me. If you can't do any better than PC war, don't get into it at all. You just cannot win a war with PC restraints. Don't fire on the enemy when he is in a mosque? Are we out of our minds??? Blow up the mosque and the enemy in it, and then they won't hide in them in the future.

Anonymous said...

Oh Chap, how many innocent people are anywhere near tactical nuclear range of Tora Bora? Few, if any. You may object to the loss of guilty lives, but innocent ones should not concern you there.

Skoonj

Rodger the Real King of France said...

Chap, you are of course allowed an opinion, but I am curious. How does "doing nukes for a living" give you bonus points? I mean, its effects are pretty well known. Also, are you of the opinion that Islamo radicals will not get nukes (I put Pakistan in that genre, btw)? Will they not use them when they do? Because I'm not.

Anonymous said...

I've been harsh on President Bush in comments and with friends recently.

I need to give the guy a break, because:
I now believe we had to go through this PC Iraq war first, in order to fight the real war afterwards. Our history of small, easy wars and no casualties - and our extreme softness as a people - since the Vietnam war has required that this war be fought according to the rules of the diplomats.

Unfortunately, we will be dreadfully attacked again as a result of this simpering softness. Having seen what happens when you go to war with a tremply, "please like me" smile, the next time won't be fought by these rules. The clearing of Fallujah from a few years back is the template that will be followed. It's kill everything that moves operations. And the military's corresponding refusal to allow the traitorous show-me-the-blood-and-the-crying-woman media access; so that they will have zero chance to turn a strategic but bloody success into a propagandized bitter war crime.

Anonymous said...

Some of the comments I have read on this thread are simply not the facts and a little hysteria. First I said at the time we should have used a smaller tactical nuke at Tora Bora and still believe we should. The fact is there are no innocent parties in that region. But I also know we have not lost the war in Afghanistan far from it. The operations there are very successful and everyone that follows that theater seriously knows that the Taliban really has no chance to rise to power again unless we just quit and that is not going to happen because the vast majority of Afghan people do not want these monsters back and are responding. Taliban are being defeated everywhere in that country but a nuke in those mountains would finish them a lot quicker. I will also say no one takes the constitution more seriously than I do and there is no assured right in that document to play poker on line. While I am sure there were some pols that voted against online poker to pander I am sure there were many that voted against it to represent millions of people that oppose it on several grounds some seeing it as immoral and as formenting corruption. I do not oppose the game myself even though I do not play. I would never vote against a person for that vote alone it is simply to trivial compared to life and death issues. The two greatest threats to our republic are the democrat party with its current radical leadership and the Mexican border. I supported Frist and was his campaign coordinator in his first race against Sasser before health problems. I would no longer vote for either Frist or Bush because they betrayed the country on the Mexican amnesty which is far more dangerous than the terrorist. But I would never lump either men in with the like of Johnson Carter and Clinton who were and still are corrupt to the core. It would take a lot more than online gambling to get me to fail to vote because to me so many things are far more important. If I wanted online gambling I would start working politically to get it passed. It was banned by elected reps and I assure you if there was an out cry from there constituents in support of poker while it was being considered it would have never been banned.

Chap said...

Fair enough, Rodge--one can be anything on the Internets. I was trying to argue from authority, which is dumb for me to do anyway. I'll tone down and shift to a different form of argumentation.

Weapons effects are one thing--the issue I was trying to get at is understanding the decision process how they get actually released, and why. Think about how long it took Americans to get to the point in wars where it was willing to be that violent. This delay is as old as Thucydides and common to wars--it takes time for people to break taboos. Tora Bora fighting occurred a matter of weeks after 9/11. It took years to get to the point of firebombing Dresden. Wishing for something will not make it happen. (I've been telling people at work that we'll only get sustainably Jacksonian as a country only if two domestic attacks happen in close enough succession to convince enough middle-of-the-road types that they should open their eyes--and we're going to get attacks on our will to fight á la Vietnam until then because our enemy may be evil but he's not stupid.)

There's pretty good evidence that the first country to expend nukes will get hit itself soon after; one of the restraints on the flow and use of nuclear weapons is the treaties and already stated policies agreed to by the Americans. If the country wants to break that egg, it should do so for a very good reason. There are kinetic weapons effects...and strategic nonkinetic weapons effects. I argue that those nonkinetic effects would be detrimental on balance. You use a nuke to change the character of a conflict, not as artillery.

So, for a potential tactical victory (killing one high value person and a couple dozen lower level looies, most of whom we got anyway) we'd lose whatever support of the surrounding countries we had then and have now, make it more likely to have a terrorist acquiring nuclear weapons against us, crapping up a big part of Afghanistan, and killing large quantities of civilians. We also wouldn't know if we got the effect we wanted, either. And this is weeks into a war where at the time we were achieving a brilliant strategic victory.

And, oh by the way, what's the desired aim point for this weapon? The Tora Bora region is huge in weapons terms (this WaPo map shows a 10mi x 10mi square, f'rinstance) and a nuclear weapon isn't going to kill everything there. We want to kill one guy--who could be hiding in a lot of places, in a region that was well prepared ahead of time, who's only there because the Americans had a spectacular strategic victory in getting forces in place quickly to cause the pressure that moved AQ forces to Kandahar. Those forces would have had to back out to avoid getting killed, which wouldn't help that encirclement.

More to the point, what level of perfection does our commenter think is expected in war? War is a series of catastrophes culminating in victory. The guy wants to use the biggest possible hammer for an irritant--which is what OBL is right now; he's not exactly showing up on Al-Jazeera every day.

I've heard lots of people wanting to "lob a nuke" at something. Well, yeah, we can do it. But it's not a trivial act, and takes thinking about the kinetic and nonkinetic consequences. Guys who do nuclear weapons for their whole career offer it up sometimes in situations where they're outside their community of practice--and then look hurt when they get their ass handed to them for suggesting something that is stupid when thought of as more than a weapons effects problem. Demonstration expenditures won't do anything, either. Neither will threats--remember all those memoirs after Desert Storm that showed the empty nature of previous American threats?

That's why I called this guy on it--we can be much more lethal without expending an SLBM on a cave entrance. If, like me, you agree with Peters that we should be more lethal, what we'd need to do is accept more failure: loosen the ROE, get more aggressive against the information war, do things like publicly and summarily hang Sadr and his other-faction equivalent simultaneously and withstand the riots, and so forth. That's going to be hard enough to do in the first place. Focus on getting it done strategically, not on twenty-twenty hindsight play tactics.

If he wants to think nuke, think where we as a country decide when we expend one or a small batch of nukes, and how to influence that decision. It's a lot more profitable than playing Tora Bora The Board Game.

Chap said...

I forgot to anwer your question about terrorists and nukes--I tend to agree with you. I think that most of the clowns we're fighting are nihilist enough to wait just long enough to inflict maximum advertising and casualties for a nuke. I half agree with you on Pakistan--not all the guys with access are nutjobs, and the national hate is more India-Pakistan related, so I don't think they'll be used against us unless they're stolen, not sold or given. OTOH there's the freakin' remains of the nuke development sales network they had...

Anonymous said...

The equation being left out of your model is the fact that certain terrorist and Governments will use a nuke against us and our allies as soon as it is on hand and they can deliver it. They will with out doubt use it against Israel. People that do nukes and I know plenty from Oak Ridge National labratories know that the size of yeild can be adjusted. At Tora Bora Intel had Osama and his pals in an area of less than five miles. Had we used a nuke we would have heard the cries of the United Nations about how unjust and excessive it was but hell what do we hear from the bozo's any way no matter what we do.Using the nuke would have better because it would have made a statement besides frying the worst monsters on earth. It would have shown the cult of death they walk a very thin line indeed and force is all these animals understand. That is how Saddam controled the warring factions in Iraq. The English proved it after the killing of Gordon in the River War when they slaughtered the animals so badly they were not a threat for 70 years. Make no mistake unless something changes drastically in Iran Israel will be forced to use nukes for there very survival.I could go on forever but it would be a waste of time.

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