Curmudgeonly & Skeptical presents Boned Jello: Donk Angst Rising

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Donk Angst Rising

What's that buzz?

I've maintained that you can take Obama's poll numbers and subtract 10 points at any given time, until just before the election, because of the Bradley effect, and built in poll bias. Snort. Donks privately agree, it seems. Well, they don't concede biased polling methods, but ...

“

Party elders are also studying internal polling material which warns the Obama camp that his true standing is worse than it appears in polls because voters lie to polling companies about their reluctance to vote for a black candidate. The phenomenon is known in the US as the Bradley effect, after Tom Bradley, a black candidate for governor of California who lost after leading comfortably in polls.

The strategist said: "I've seen memos where they've been told to factor in four to six points for the Bradley effect, but they're in denial about it. [Barack Obama under fire]

”

Half the battle is believing you can, thinking the thought, and by Gar I'm starting to think about the ceremony where Pelosi turns her Speaker's gavel .... . Shhhh.

Rodger the Real King of France 9/13/2008 11:47:00 PM 8 Comments

"If the number of Islamic terror attacks continues at the current rate, candlelight vigils will soon be the number-one cause of global warming. "
Argus Hamilton

8 comments:

Anonymous said...: Please, please, please, please, please, please, please, please...; 9/14/08, 12:38 AM
Anonymous said...: I tend to think the Bradley Effect is a crock-o-poop because why would anyone have to lie about who they're voting for? If you're racist you're either going to say you're voting for the white guy or you refuse to take part in the poll in the first place.

Polling methods slant left to get the desired results. That's the Bradley Effect.

Emerson; 9/14/08, 6:48 AM
Rodger the Real King of France said...: The threat of being perceived as being racist is so threatening itself, that some people tell pollsters they'll vote for the Black candidate to escape censure. Their actual reason for not voting for the candidate may have nothing to do with race. It happens.; 9/14/08, 7:35 AM
Anonymous said...: Another effect is that polls tend to over sample Dims at a time when they are showing that the generic ballot is within the margin of error - despite the over sampling of Dims.

I say add 3 points to McCain for this.

And subtract just as many from Obama as his image of inevitability shatters. It is hard to get enthusiastic over a Loser...; 9/14/08, 11:07 AM
Anonymous said...: Dems think they are God's anointed, and like talking to pollsters.

Republicans prefer privacy, and tell the pollsters to fuck-off.

Built in bias right there.; 9/14/08, 2:11 PM
Anonymous said...: Emerson:
Polling methods slant left to get the desired results. That's the Bradley Effect.

Kristopher:
Dems think they are God's anointed, and like talking to pollsters.
Republicans prefer privacy, and tell the pollsters to fuck-off.

These two posters have nailed this Bradley Effect to the floor. They are correct. The Bradley Effect continues to live because it's based on the certainty that Americans are RACIST, and that fits the meme.

There's also been some notice of the gross inaccuracy of exit polls. That's because they are almost completely taken in Dem-dominated cities, the more Conservative 'burbs and rural areas are never considered.

The polls are biased to the left and most Black candidates are Left. That's your Bradley Effect.

Annoyed White Male
http://annoyedwhitemale.squarespace.com/journal/; 9/14/08, 5:42 PM
Anonymous said...: The aide said that her repeated mockery of Mr Obama's boasts about his time as a community organiser in Chicago are "the most effective criticisms of Barack Obama we have yet seen." He said: "Americans in small and medium size towns dont know what the hell a community organiser is. Real Americans graduate from high school or college and get a job that pays a wage. Campus radicals go off and organise a community."

Best sentence in the article.
ozaoB; 9/14/08, 6:53 PM
Anonymous said...: Oh please. The best part of being called by a pollster is getting to lie to them. I have never, once, told the truth to a pollster, and I've gotten quite a number of calls over the years.

I can't remember where I read that 10 to fifteen percent of democrats say they will never vote for a black man, but I read it, somewhere.

That's only the ones that admit it. Dems are the most racist bastards there are, I wouldn't be surprised if that true number was up in the 40%.

I'd vote for a black man, I just won't that black man.

And anyways, he's more arab than black.; 9/14/08, 9:05 PM

Saturday, September 13, 2008

Donk Angst Rising

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