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Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Dead Even
5 comments:
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Anonymous said...
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Not sure what to make about the polls. Unlike the Media, who are certainly in the tank, pollsters have to live to fight another day. People will remember who got it right. And they don't just come out every two years, they do polling nonstop. For instance, my company switched to Gallup this year for their big internal poll on the shape of things.
Polls can convince people to sit home. If it's too much one way or the other, folk will consider their vote as not mattering, and take a walk. Will the Obamao's still come out if they perceive a predetermined win? Will McCain's?
My thought is that the Barack supporters tend to be flightier than their counterparts. More interested in the one-million folk party in Chicago than in actually voting. There's a lack of real commitment there (rain never does the Democrats any good).
Republicans realize that there's more on the ballot, and will do their duty come election day.
So, back to the polls: I wish they'd keep putting up the nonsense numbers of Obama being up by too much to lose. They may forget to vote. Our side won't.
PS: I'm not at all concerned with riots and other shenanigans once McCain wins. The Dems will have to point to the Media for so much misinformation, and that's going to be such fun. -
10/28/08, 8:27 PM
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Rodger the Real King of France said...
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Historically, only the last day's poll, before election day, reflect what the numbers really are.
Remember when Zogby was the only pollster to call the Republican takeover in 1984? Everyone thought he was genius, but in subsequent elections he tanked for democrats - and was usually wrong. This year it's the TIPP poll that has gravitas, and it has consistently shown an open race.
This is going to be hard for pollsters, I think, because I sense real fear, and and real hatred for Obama out there, that will hardly be reflected in their numbers. That's my two cents. I'm still saying that McCain wins.
Why? Because we win battles like Midway. -
10/28/08, 8:57 PM
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Anonymous said...
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I went and checked out that rain effect mentioned above. Mebbe Rodg, bring out the bomber for some cloud seeding: Snow in Denver, rain in Detroit, Cleveland, and Philadelphia. Might be all it takes. The reverse Gore effect, brought to you by the Barn Army.
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10/28/08, 9:13 PM
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Anonymous said...
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Take a look at Iowahawks' Balls and Urns essay. http://iowahawk.typepad.com/iowahawk/2008/10/balls-and-urns.html
I have a whole bunch of grad credits in statistics and have to say that he has done an excellent job in laying out just how wrong polling can be.
We have to get every single non-commie out to the polls on the fourth.
bullseye -
10/28/08, 9:21 PM
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Anonymous said...
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I think there's a 2 point liberal bias in polling. Lengthy rant here.
AWM -
10/28/08, 10:35 PM
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