I'm still getting a McCain win

Inspector Detector

Look what I found

I watched earlier this morning how a banker became interested in explaining the sudden end of the Mayan civilization, to sneers from the archeologist lobby.  He persisted, and solved the mystery,  Drought.  Yes, drought in the rain forest, go figure.  Given that example of schmuck versus professional, I am prepared to take on the polling digerati.  Here's the dour news from my poll guy this morning. “ In this difficult season for the party in the White House, I think it is interesting to point out a pertinent fact.  George W. Bush won the popular vote in 2004 by about 2.5% over John Kerry.  Right now, a reasonable average of national polls gives Barack Obama something close to a 7.5% lead over John McCain.  Though that seems like a major shift in the electorate, it actually represents only a five percent switch.  To put it in more understandable terms, all it takes for Bush's 2.5% victory in 2004 to turn into a landslide 7.5% McCain defeat in 2008 is for just one Bush voter in 20 to change his or her vote.Election Projection ”  I can do that ... }In 2004 12.5% of all voters, or 15.725 million, were Black, and went roughly 75% for Kerry,  good for roughly 11.8  million votes.  This year I concede to Obama 100% of that vote, an increase of  4 million votes.  }In 2004, women accounted for 67.3 million votes cast.  Excluding the  9.1M Black women  leaves 58.18 M women unaccounted for.  Kerry took  roughly 60%  or 34.9M.  This year roughly 8% of those women, or 2.8 million,  have stated they will go for McCain,   which leaves Obama a net pickup of 1.2 million votes so far. }The Bradley effect, if it's real, and I suspect it is, costs Obama roughly 6% of the remaining non-Black 2004 democrat vote of 43.6M or 2.6 mil.  which leaves Obama with a negative 1.4 mil. or 1.1% of the 04 vote, which accrue to McCain.  }Not accounted for is the additional support Sarah Palin may pick up from Kerry voters (I don't think she loses any from Bush 04 numbers). And, the crackdown on ACORN, which is responsible for maybe 75% of organized democrat voter fraud (the NAACP is  probably 2nd), means Obama will lose counted-on numbers from critical states, like Ohio.  }Even with his 100% Black vote, Obama is, at this point, looking at  a 3.6% defeat as opposed to Kerry's 2.5% loss. If every other Kerry democrat (not already accounted for by Bradley) votes for Obama, will  2.4 million Bush voters switch to a radical Barack Obama?  I'm one of those "mad at Bush" voters (spending, immigration) but there's not a chance in hell I vote for a Marxist radical.  If Republicans turn out in the same relative numbers as 2004, Obama loses.  And by the way, in 2004 Republicans were 50% of all voters, so how is it that pollsters are still weight their polls 53-47 Democrat?