In 2004, TIPP, a Division of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, came within ³/₁₀ of 1% point of President Bush's actual margin of victory, thus winning the title of "Nation's Most Accurate Pollster."

The table below shows results for a two-way race between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama among likely voters.

John McCain vs. Barack Obama
Release Date	McCain	Obama	Undecided	Spread
October 16	41.6%	45.2%	13.2%	+3.6 Obama
October 15	41.9%	45.2%	12.9%	+3.3 Obama
October 14	41.9%	44.8%	13.3%	+3.0 Obama
October 13	42.7%	44.8%	12.5%	+2.1 Obama

Tipp is showing higher Undecided numbers than other polls, I suspect because theirs is a 2-man poll. But, this race is far from decided, and Obama is far from having it sewed up. In fact, if you include all the variables, you can easily conclude that McCain is 3-4 points ahead. Some of the category results are mind blowing. Of course I'm just going on common sense here, which can't compete with the likes of brilliant analysts at NBC and the New York Times, but you decide.

When I say that world Jewry have the most to lose if Obama is elected, I don't mean an increase in anti-semitic graffiti on gravestones. I mean physical danger, and in the case of Israel, death, because who do they think is going to lift a finger against Iran?

Since the pollster lumps Black/Hispanics together, it's hard to say whether Blacks are polling ahead of their traditional 75% or so democrat vote. But, 78% of Jews? That number is consistent with the other polls I've studied, and with their votes in 2000 and 2004. Jews don't see any difference between Gore/Kerry and Obama? I don't get it.

I love the "Displays Flag," category, and yes, I could have pretty much guessed those numbers. It means Americans will vote for McCain, and Commies, with their useful idiots in tow, will go Obama. Say Amen.

Rodger the Real King of France 10/16/2008 03:56:00 PM 10 Comments

"If the number of Islamic terror attacks continues at the current rate, candlelight vigils will soon be the number-one cause of global warming. "
Argus Hamilton

10 comments:

Anonymous said...: lumps Black/Hispanics together

I think that's a major mistake on the poller's part.; 10/16/08, 4:03 PM
Juice said...: The problem with American Jews is, quite sadly, when it comes to politics, they are Liberals First and Jewish second. I just hope on all that is Holy, those stating they'd vote Obama not to seem "racist" do the opposite in the voting booth.

My soul preemptively shudders at the thought of POTUS Obama AND that hideously angry wife in tow with him. Forget the horror movies this Halloween, just watch pre-election coverage.; 10/16/08, 4:07 PM
Anonymous said...: Amen Juice to your AND...

My best friend, a Jew, who has made Israel his home for the past 15 years, is similarly flummoxed about how Jews vote here. His entire family in the states is solidly liberal. Funny thing is they are intelligent, realize the Republicans are the true friends of Israel and still can not bring themselves to vote for McCain.

We think it's abortion but whatever.
MM; 10/16/08, 5:21 PM
Anonymous said...: I thinks it's a traditional thing they can't seem to shake. Slowly but surely they're waking up. Not all, but some are.

oy vey ole'; 10/16/08, 6:01 PM
Juice said...: MM, 'honored here that would address my comment, as you are a good thinker here. 'Tis a scary thing to wonder if abortion is the key for "God's Chosen People" (Hebrews).; 10/16/08, 7:34 PM
Anonymous said...: Ah, the Jewish vote.

According to the exit polls here in Florida Bush took only 12% of the Jewish vote in 2000, but he took 20% in 2004.

That's huge.

I thought the results of a 2007 RJC poll of Jewish voters in New Jersey, Florida and Pennsylvania was interesting.

Its main findings:

26.4% of Jews voted Republican.

Younger Jewish voters supported Republican candidates in even greater numbers.

Among those under age 55, 30.7% voted Republican, compared to 23.8% of those age 55 and over.

It also found that Jewish men are more inclined to vote Republican (30.6%) than women (22.6%).

And, among those who attend synagogue almost every day, 35.2% voted Republican, those who attend once a week, 31.8% voted Republican, and only 23.1% of "occasional attendees" voted Republican.

Reform Jews voted 23.0% Republican, Conservative 25.2% Republican, and Orthodox 42% Republican.

The more religious, the more Republican.; 10/16/08, 8:02 PM
Juice said...: LindaSoG,
Behind the wine here, but, if your info is correct, where did you find it? Not confrontational, but looking for truth here.; 10/16/08, 8:45 PM
Anonymous said...: Juice, the original article about the poll is no longer on line, I can only find references to it in places such as the American Thinker. If tinyurl works right, a link to their article about the poll is here:

http://tinyurl.com/5n46no; 10/16/08, 9:26 PM
Juice said...: Thanks.; 10/16/08, 10:01 PM
Anonymous said...: It's that 1 Sam 8 thingie... they can't help it.; 10/17/08, 8:57 AM

Curmudgeonly & Skeptical presents Boned Jello

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Today's TIPP

In 2004, TIPP, a Division of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, came within ³/₁₀ of 1% point of President Bush's actual margin of victory, thus winning the title of "Nation's Most Accurate Pollster."

10 comments:

Post a Comment

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Today's TIPP

In 2004, TIPP, a Division of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, came within 3/10 of 1% point of President Bush's actual margin of victory, thus winning the title of "Nation's Most Accurate Pollster."

10 comments:

Post a Comment

In 2004, TIPP, a Division of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, came within ³/₁₀ of 1% point of President Bush's actual margin of victory, thus winning the title of "Nation's Most Accurate Pollster."