Why We Win

McCain-Palin - In Like Flynn

YUP

“ McCain Leads OH, Trails FL, CO, VA, NC, MO As expected, Scott Rasmussen released his polls for five battleground states and they all show McCain losing ground compared to the previous poll. PRESIDENT - FLORIDA (Rasmussen) Barack Obama (D) 52% John McCain (R) 45% PRESIDENT - OHIO (Rasmussen) John McCain (R) 48% Barack Obama (D) 47% PRESIDENT - VIRGINIA (Rasmussen) Barack Obama (D) 50% John McCain (R) 48% PRESIDENT - COLORADO (Rasmussen) Barack Obama (D) 51% John McCain (R) 45% PRESIDENT - MISSOURI (Rasmussen) Barack Obama (D) 50% John McCain (R) 47% These polls were all done October 5th among 1000 likely voters in each state. It continues to amaze me how wildly divergent all these polls seem to be. This morning we had two polls showing Obama with double-digit leads in VA and now have one showing the race to be within the margin of error. Clearly both can’t be true. [Hedgehog Report] ” Consider that this morning CBS, which polling gave Biden a resounding 50 percent to 31 percent win over Sarah in their debate, says "the race is tightening."  Why would the likes of SNL and Alec Baldwin be so eager to pin the housing loan bubble burst on Democrats?  Because they know what's percolating in the workplace, and by targeting Frank and the House, they direct away from Dodd and Obama in the Senate.  What else makes sense? Palin is a Pit Bull, and will not let up. Because of her McCain too is showing gumption.  If he folds tonight, though, all bets are off. Here's why I think McCain is in like Flynn at this juncture, in no particular order. It's standard practice for pollsters to overweight sampling on the order of  53D-39R, much too high. College students who do not vote anywhere near their strength are Obamnans. Obama's Birth Certificate issue is beginning to percolate publicly. The idea is, and has been for years, to use polls to discourage Republican voters, but Obama is such a polarizing figure that fear will take over, and result in a massive McCain turnout 70 million people watched the Palin-Biden debate Obama's ties to radicalism are only now surfacing in a big way.  The topped-out Democrat Scream-O-Meter means fear. Obama has lost 8% of the Hillary-women vote -how does he make that up?  With men? His Muslim image The Bradley factor The focus on ACORN's  vote stealing won't stop the practice, but makes it harder for them to operate as openly as in the past. I cannot fathom Obama keeping anything close to the 78% Jewish vote that Kerry received in 2004.  If there is a Bradley factor, liberal Jewish guilt is susceptible to it.  McCain keeps Florida. Four years ago at this  point some  polls had Kerry up by as much as 8.