Thursday, October 09, 2008

Why We Win

Polls: Obama or McCain Is Winning?
Not to worry.  McCain will win

Ever since I wrote my anti-Obama piece, I have received numerous emails from Republicans and Democrats alike, asking whether I still think Obama will lose the election.  Yes, I do.  But what about the polls, they ask?  The polls show that Obama is winning.  No, they don't, as I will explain. 

Steven M. Warshawsky in this American Thinker piece analyzes  the polls in a straightforward and compelling manner.  His conclusion comports with my own less analytical, but based on the historical record, conclusion that polling data are manipulated to give a desired result. The article is short but concise, so please do read it. 

Moreover, the idea – implicit in the daily fluctuations of the polls – that large numbers of American voters are regularly switching back and forth between McCain and Obama makes no sense.  Who knows any real people who are going through such mental and political gymnastics?

In short, the polls do not show that Obama is "winning" the race, anymore than they show that McCain is "winning" the race.  What they show is that the contest is very close, and will not be decided until election day -- when the American people actually go to the polls and cast their votes. 

For the reasons I've stated before, I predict that more votes will be cast for McCain than for Obama.

And what about what I think is calculated terrorism?

Whether or not, as some irresponsible commentators have suggested, there will be violence in the streets if Obama loses, it will be deeply damaging to the nation's social fabric for John McCain's election to be challenged from the start as illegitimate.

Every election brings complaints from the left about underground rumors in Black neighborhoods of police monitoring the polling place, looking to make arrests for child support, parole, and other violations.  These Rovian tactics, they say, suppress the Black vote.  Nobody is ever fingered for passing these rumors, but the point is well made -- any attempt at voter verification will be racist.  So what is this?  It's aimed at white knuckle Whites, who worry about race riots.  Not only that, Liberal judges will take the threat into account should voter fraud complaints land on their docket. 

When the smoke clears, I'm confident I'll be watching Vice President Palin sworn in on Jan. 20, along with Whatshisname. And if anybody tries to race-riot in my house, they'll get plugged.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I could agree, all things being equal, but they're not. Just watched Ken Blackwell, former Ohio Sec of State, run the numbers. 90% of Ohio's eligible voters are registered. That number in and of itself is indicative of fraud. Add to it that Ohio has 600k new voters on the rolls, while losing population. I'm sure closer scrutiny will show that all of these new voters are concentrated around Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinatti. ACORN and the D's have exported the one thing they have to the rest of America, corruption.

Casca

Rodger the Real King of France said...

Which is why the recent sharp focus on ACORN's activities is important. Consider that ...

"Early returns showed about 3,000 voters in Ohio's four largest counties took advantage of the disputed policy, a surprisingly low turnout to some elections officials."

They know they're being watched.

BlogDog said...

Limbaugh makes his usually prescient comment that the pollsters, after doing as much manipulation as they can, start "showign the race tightening" as it nears its conclusion because if they demonstrate their lousy predictive ability, they lose legitimacy. In the long run they will take their own rice bowl over pure manipulation.

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