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what's really bad for President Obama and his party is the likely
impact of the 2010 Census and ensuing House of Representatives
reapportionment on the distribution of votes in the 2012 Electoral
College. We can talk all day about whether a majority of voters would
support Obama for re-election or not, but what really counts in
presidential elections is the Electoral College. Each state's electoral
vote equals its number of representatives in the House plus two, for
its Senate delegation. And since the U.S. population continues to flow
South and West, reapportionment will probably add House seats in red
states and subtract them in blue states. Thus, the Census looks like a
setback for Democratic chances to win the 270 electoral votes necessary
to become president.
Texas, which has voted Republican in 9 of the last 10 elections will
gain 4 electoral votes, according to projections from preliminary
Census data by Polidata.com. The other gainers -- one vote each --
include Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina and Utah. All
of these states have voted for the GOP candidate in at least 7 of the
last 10 elections.
To be sure, Florida and Nevada have been more up for grabs of late:
Obama carried both in 2008. But [...]
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