Saturday, September 22, 2012

How is this race even close???

            
              2012
                                           


La La La La La


Yet another article that addresses the disconnect between polls and reality (Current Events).

Here’s a new Washington Post-ABC New poll — with a sample favoring Democrats by 9 points — that shows Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama by 47-46 percent among registered voters.

Once you begin to look more deeply at these national polls, you have to wonder: how is this thing even close? Obviously, there are cultural, geographical, religious and … well, endless reasons why people vote the way they do. But, beyond the political debate, if you simply focus on the perceptions and opinions of the people being polled, it’s difficult to understand how we get to a national tie.

For instance:

Q: Generally speaking, would you say you favor (smaller government with fewer services), or (larger government with more services)?

[56 percent says “yes,” while 33 percent say no.]

More tangibly, Romney leads 50-43 on handling the economy and 51-43 on handling the deficit (continued).




10 comments:

Eli said...

D+9 poll when obama won in 2008 with an historically high D+7 electorate. The job of this poll is to dishearten Romney supporters.

But I love it! It's a great poll. We'll just shift it down to D+3 (average of last 30 years IIRC from Jay Cost?) and we'll shift it 3 points to go from Registered to Likely voters.... and I'll call it 51-42 Romney.

Looking good here boss!

Helly said...

That's a good call, Darin.

Now all we need are some stronger sedatives for the king.

Chris in NC said...

2008 was D+7 and not D+3 because the blacks turnout for Obama. Despite the reports of blacks being disillusioned they will turnout in record numbers. They are, by and large, mindless racists supporting the black guy over whitey. The election in 2012 will be a minimum of D+6 or D+7.

Anonymous said...

I live in Colorado----a battleground state. I get robo polled about once a week and I always punch in strong 0bama supporter. There is no way I am not voting repub, but I enjoy lying to pollsters. Everyone should. I would vote for a steaming pile of shit against that communist foreign exchange student. It is 50-50 whether Romney will be a decent president, but it is 100% that 0bama is a horrible one. Romney is no Reagen, but he might be a passable Eisenhower.

jim

Steve in Greensboro said...

Just got back to the Old North State after a brief sojourn in enemy territory. Registered to vote again in God's country yesterday and will vote for R-R with the same enthusiasm that I voted for Reagan and against every Democrat-Communist before and since.

Might even go to the Inauguration to mock the commies. I am so looking forward to November.

Na na na na, na na na na, hey hey, goodbye.

Goodbye, commies.

Jess said...

I read an article on Drudge that stated that the leader of the Obama re-election committee, head cheerleader and chief fabricator of bullshit warns the polls can't be believed and that Obama is winning.

What's next? A public service announcement after the election stating the entire frigging United States was wrong when they voted the Obamaspock back to Purgatory?

toadold said...

Yes Obama will get the majority of the black vote, but not nearly the majority he got in 2008. One conservative black pundit state that when a white pollster ask ask a black voter who he is voting for he'll reflexively say Obama. Among themselves black are say either no, or they are sitting this one out. Gay marriage and continued high unemployment are taking their toll.
If the black turnout is something like 75% to 80% (or possibly lower) Obama is toast.

Anonymous said...

I have a fundamental issue with the sample question: How the flying [bleep] do you answer an Either/Or question Yes or No and have it make any sense at all? No wonder the pollsters have no problem manipulating the numbers. -- Skyhawker, Doug

Billll said...

If they want to over sample Democrats, just tell them you're a Democrat, and you plan to vote for Romney.

Anti Money Laundering said...

An election is a moral horror, as bad as a battle except for the blood; a mud bath for every soul concerned in it.

Post a Comment

Just type your name and post as anonymous if you don't have a Blogger profile.