This NEW YORK magazine
article, 2012: How Sarah Barracuda
Becomes President,
has much to recommended it. Let's start by using it to answer a
question Josh asked after I dissed John Boehner as the next speaker: "What's wrong with Boehner?"
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All
those guys, they could try and turn it up and have the fervor, but
voters are gonna read through it,” says Dowd. “It’s just not authentic
to them, because they’ve been part of the Washington scene or taking
part in state politics, where they cut deals and made compromises—which
is part of governing but lethal in this environment.
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That assessment was aimed at establishment guys (Romney. et.al.)
running for president, but it applies to Boehner as well. In this
regard John Heilemann displays an understanding of the Teaparty that
few others have displayed. He notes that in any other year Mitt
Romney
would be the GOP's designated (can you say John McCain)
candidate, but
"his favorability among conservative
voters is just 30 percent."
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The
reasons are myriad, but paramount among them is his role in
enacting a health-care law in Massachusetts that bears a striking
similarity to the controversial (and loathed on the right) federal
overhaul that Democrats passed this year. |
Others are similarly dismissed in a Teaparty environment:
- Pawlenty is an erstwhile liberal on climate change;
- Huckabee is widely written off because he lacks the
capacity to raise big cash and his appeal is limited to Evangelicals
- We Republicans are so desperate for an ideas guy like
Newt Gingrich that sometimes we even turn to Newt Gingrich, ... “[But]
he is not a serious candidate for president.
- [Texas Gov. Rick] Perry’s a hero to Second Amendment
zealots and shit-kickers alike. But
Perry hasn’t given the slightest public indication that he’s interested
in running, and even if he did get in, he might well prove no match for
Palin in the anti-Establishment tier.
How will the Establishment
candidates cope with [Palin the candidate]? “The
first thing it does is completely freaks them out ... And the hard part
is, it’s going to be difficult for them to go after her, because she’s
so popular [within the party] - Segue Bloomberg factor - in a
nutshell.
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Moderate
Republicans would rebel and turn to someone with business acumen -
Bloomberg. Running as a third-party candidate, he siphons off New
York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, and California. Denying Obama
those states.
... with Palin holding the fire-engine-red states of the South,
and
the president might find himself short of the 270 electoral votes
necessary to win.
Assuming you still remember the basics from American Government 101,
you know what would happen next: The election would be thrown to the
House of Representatives—which, after November 2, is likely to be
controlled by the Republicans. The result: Hello, President Palin!
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There are plenty of liberal laugh lines that leak through, but
while I
won't be putting money on this scenario right now, it's a very good
effort.
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