[...]
In every contested primary since 1980, the establishment has had the
decided advantage of settling on a candidate early while numerous
conservatives fought for the right to be the establishment’s principal
opponent long past the time when the race was actually decided. This
phenomenon reached its peak in 2012 when the conservative base plowed
through a series of increasingly unserious challengers searching for an
alternative to Mitt Romney. As a result, the establishment
unsurprisingly tends to win Presidential primaries without too much
serious heartburn – the sole exception to this dynamic being when
Ronald Reagan spent the better part of four years herding the movement
conservative cats into his camp to challenge the establishment favorite
George H.W. Bush in 1980.
Most likely, it looks like conservatives are going to fall into the
same inevitable trap. No one has really spent the time laying the
groundwork to become a consensus conservative candidate which makes
sense in light of the fact that the best possible conservative
challengers are still sitting office holders. But at least in this case
the playing field might potentially be leveled.
Jeb probably is the presumptive establishment favorite among the three,
but Romney and Christie both have a significant pool of potential
donors, political chits to cash, and enough ego to burn to make them
unwilling to kiss Jeb’s ring early on in the contest, at least before
he wins some actual primaries. They are, also, competing over basically
the same pool of voters, as they have all [pisseed off Teapartiers] to
the point that they will be unlikely to siphon votes from the crowd of
conservative challengers.
(full)
[...]
Bush planned to raise $100 million in the first three months of the
year– an ambitious mark to achieve, and a risky one to publicize. “The
former Florida governor is looking to send a message to the rest of the
potential field,” Bloomberg declared in the subtitle.
“Message: Received,” may as well have been Mr. Romney’s reply, as he
worked to pump the brakes on the 30 or so conflicted donors he had
gathered. “Loud and clear.”
Additionally, while these two “establishment” Republicans square off, a
third, the moderate Mr. Christie, seems likely to join the fray.
Imagine that, conservatives? A three-way battle for the soul of the
[establishment] GOP? For its money, consultants and votes?
Good news, we think.
Because at the same time the establishment wing of the GOP if flying
into disarray, the right’s presidential candidates appear more serious,
and more organized, than they have been in decades. ...
And
on the governor level of the right, it seems more than likely that
Govs. Mike Pence and ***Scott Walker*** will join the fray with an
advantage in executive experience, even if they’re behind in setting up
their national campaigns.
The first battle of the campaign is about to begin, conservatives. Put
down the sword and grab some popcorn.
[...]
