Thursday, May 22, 2008

Kiss my Ass Durbin

Oil Stuff
and a new American Hero


''... prices should not skyrocket like this in a functioning, free market.'' Sen. Leaky Leahy

"You have to sense what you're doing to us - we're on the precipice here, about to fall into recession," said Sen. Richard Durbin, D-Ill. "Does it trouble any one of you - the costs you're imposing on families, on small businesses, on truckers?" - San. Dick "The Turban" Durbin

Opening comments during the House of Lord's hearing on oil prices.  That gave John Hofmeister, president of Shell Oil, his chance to do what we hope  to hear from everyone this gaggle of flibbertigibbets hauls in for one of their show trials.  Listen, and toast him.


The assembled executives also frowned on a recently passed House bill giving the Justice Department the power to sue OPEC, saying it would have little effect in boosting production.

I sent the above  poll to Greeper, whose business it is to know this stuff, and he pretty much had the same response.

 Interesting. The questionnaire itself reflects the typical misunderstandings.....it talks about crude prices but then mentions lack of refineries. Refining capacity affects gas prices, not crude prices. Arguably increased capacity would INCREASE crude prices but it would accelerate demand.
I would rate:
1. Speculation
2. China, India, etc
3. Value of the Dollar
4. (Very minor) environmental constraints. Not an issue where development occurs really, ex-north slope really and maybe a little in Europe, but I've never heard of it preventing development.
The rest don't matter, IMO.

Greep
     

As in real life, when Greep and I disagree, I'm right. 


9 comments:

Anonymous said...

Dude, don't panic. It's YKW from Vermont--your recently retired conservationist friend.

Thirty years ago, Americans were spending 5% of their gross income on energy. Now it's 3%.

Why am I the only one celebrating this monumental achievement??? Petroleum products are so cheap, it makes no sense to spend money trying to conserve them. It drove me out of the insulation business, and I've never been happier.

*USA*USA*USA*

Timbeaux said...

The value of the dollar has a lot more to do with it than you or most people realise; oil is bought and sold in dollars.The dollar has fallen 50% versus the euro since 2003, that's $40 a barrel in a constant oil-value market. Still, China, India and the developing world in general are the #1 cause.

Anonymous said...

Shell Oil was just denied drilling off of the north slope of Alaska.
When ws the last rifinery built in the US? Nuke plant? Or Coal fired plant? Nope we gotta burn oil or NG to make electricity.
RAK

Anonymous said...

I thought I said (meant to say) "INCREASE crude prices *because* it would accelerate demand."

John Burgess said...

Timbeaux: The price of the dollar is the least significant factor.

Oil is priced in dollars. No matter what the dollar is 'worth' compared to other currencies, it still buys oil at the market price. Other currencies may get it cheaper, but the US isn't paying more.

Where the weak dollar kicks in is when you have to buy stuff that uses oil in its production or transportation, i.e., everything including what you grow in your garden if you use fertilizer.

Oil may be the only thing whose price a weak dollar doesn't affect. That's why the Arab Gulf states that have their currencies pegged to the dollar are thinking about changing. And some are thinking about redenominating oil sales into a basket of currencies.

Anonymous said...

What an abomination....The do-gooders, (assholes), of America have effectively placed strong constraints on American capitalism that severly restricts the continued advancement of those who endeavor to improve our well-being.
And that pisses me.

-Dale-

Anonymous said...

THE BEST: tonights transcript of Glenn Beck talking to T. Boone Pickens - http://tinyurl.com/62g9vo

marcm

Anonymous said...

Actually, the USRAC refinery in Anacortes WA was just dismantled.

They can't use high sulfur Alaskan crude any more to make gasoline and diesel for sale in the US.

So the refinery got dismantled, and the pieces sold abroad to someone who will actually run it ... and the Alaska crude gets sold to Japan and China.

OregonGuy said...

I think there's this unstated presumption that somehow any oil produced in Alaska, or Colorado or North Dakota, is going to end up being burned up as gasoline here in the U.S.

Now there are restrictions on the export of trees from state lands. (Somehow, some genius in gubberment figured out that trees from state lands don't affect the overall prices for trees in the international market) Privately owned trees can be exported, though.

What happens if US oil is exported, and because of that, the price at the pump declines? Does Congress come roaring back in, complaining of "outsourcing our oil" or some such nonsense?

The understanding of markets is so small in sum. So few people actually have the basics of oil production, supply and demand, that most of what I read about oil prices has as much to do with the actual price of oil as does talking about increases in the number of colors used in painting stop signs.

It simply isn't getting there. And while I understand the knee-jerk reaction to "support the dollar", I don't understand why a weak dollar is bad if the prices we pay for goods and services aren't changing. (Adjusted for normal inflation growth.) Who is paying the price for a low dollar? That would be countries like China and Venezuela, who have pegged their currency to ours. We have asked them to float for years.

Yesterday, on Kudlow, there was talk about the oil "bubble". If you were China, would you want to hold a lot of contracts, denominated in dollars, for a commodity after the bubble bursts? At a certain point, you will want to start paying in yuan, but to get to that point you're going to have to allow your currency to float. Gresham's Law still applies in the 21st century.

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