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Texas Darlin'
is certainly a worker bee. I've been fascinated by the PUMA campaign to
elect McCain, because as hard core, high profile Hillary supporters,
they know their way around alleys and side streets I've never heard of,
and would prolly hesitate to venture into. This most recent boost
deals with the number of PUMAs it will take to win enough battleground
states electoral votes to forestall a communist takeover.
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The P.U.M.A. Factor.
Paul Marston, an elections expert, is staking his 45-year reputation
on a public prediction that McCain-Palin will win, based on an analysis
that assumes the major pollsters are ignoring the PUMA Factor.
At 2pm ET Monday, Paul Marston made his latest prediction:
Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania have edged back
up slightly, but are still below the average from two days ago. North
Carolina is now a tie and RCP now shows it for McCain-Palin on the no
toss up map. The big news is that Florida has come down drastically
from 4.2 to 2.5 and is bound to go for McCain-Palin. The stunning news
is that Minnesota is coming on like gangbusters. The kind of movement
would indicate that Minnesota is quite likely to go for McCain. I will
up my prediction from a 42 to a 52 electoral votes margin pending
further data.
Marston’s blog is fascinating. Read it all at Marston Chronicles.
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I don't know who Paul Marston is, so I did some snooping. AJStrata [The Strata-Sphere] also picked up on it, and 'splains things good.
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For example, Paul Marston shows Ohio needs to see 103,788 PUMA
voters for McCain-Palin to win. Let’s put some error bars on that and
say it is +/- 20%, which gives a conservative estimate of 124,456. Now
I have no idea if Mr. Marston's calculations are correct - none. I am
not vouching for his math.
Now let’s look at this year’s Democrat Primary in Ohio
and see how many people voted for Hillary - and we find it
is 1,207,806. 10% of this number is 120,780, which is about how much
Mr. Marston claims can put McCain over the top. OK, that seems like it
might be in the ballpark because Obama lost Ohio pretty badly to Mrs
Clinton.
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Interestingly enough - the Marston prediction exactly replicates the Barn Army Poll
10-31-2008 I released on Saturday.
Marston has his record of success; I have mine. I am able to go
grocery shopping with MoSup, and at the check-out she'll ask, "How much
will this come to," and I'll answer within $5, and sometimes
dead-on. So, that's that. McCain wins. I'm going out
to buy some bullets.
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