A Divided Establishment

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“ Here, citing  Leon Wolf's A Divided Establishment, For a Change [...] In every contested primary since 1980, the establishment has had the decided advantage of settling on a candidate early while numerous conservatives fought for the right to be the establishment’s principal opponent long past the time when the race was actually decided. This phenomenon reached its peak in 2012 when the conservative base plowed through a series of increasingly unserious challengers searching for an alternative to Mitt Romney. As a result, the establishment unsurprisingly tends to win Presidential primaries without too much serious heartburn – the sole exception to this dynamic being when Ronald Reagan spent the better part of four years herding the movement conservative cats into his camp to challenge the establishment favorite George H.W. Bush in 1980. Most likely, it looks like conservatives are going to fall into the same inevitable trap. No one has really spent the time laying the groundwork to become a consensus conservative candidate which makes sense in light of the fact that the best possible conservative challengers are still sitting office holders. But at least in this case the playing field might potentially be leveled. Jeb probably is the presumptive establishment favorite among the three, but Romney and Christie both have a significant pool of potential donors, political chits to cash, and enough ego to burn to make them unwilling to kiss Jeb’s ring early on in the contest, at least before he wins some actual primaries. They are, also, competing over basically the same pool of voters, as they have all [pisseed off Teapartiers] to the point that they will be unlikely to siphon votes from the crowd of conservative challengers. (full) Now, the interlocking analysis from The Daily Caller; Why Conservatives should be ecstatic, which is right in my wheelhpose.  [...] Bush planned to raise $100 million in the first three months of the year– an ambitious mark to achieve, and a risky one to publicize. “The former Florida governor is looking to send a message to the rest of the potential field,” Bloomberg declared in the subtitle. “Message: Received,” may as well have been Mr. Romney’s reply, as he worked to pump the brakes on the 30 or so conflicted donors he had gathered. “Loud and clear.” Additionally, while these two “establishment” Republicans square off, a third, the moderate Mr. Christie, seems likely to join the fray. Imagine that, conservatives? A three-way battle for the soul of the [establishment] GOP? For its money, consultants and votes? Good news, we think. Because at the same time the establishment wing of the GOP if flying into disarray, the right’s presidential candidates appear more serious, and more organized, than they have been in decades. ... And on the governor level of the right, it seems more than likely that Govs. Mike Pence and ***Scott Walker*** will join the fray with an advantage in executive experience, even if they’re behind in setting up their national campaigns. The first battle of the campaign is about to begin, conservatives. Put down the sword and grab some popcorn. [...] A comment under Leon Wolf's article has a familiar ring: “conservativeamerica docdave88 • 4 hours ago I do not mean any disrespect but I'll never understand this mentality of staying home if your candidate doesn't win. Either you honestly believe that Hillary is better than Bush, Christie, or Romney.... or you think that by staying home you are proving a point to the "establishment". Either way it seems like a self-inflicted punishment. You are proving a point to nobody and accomplishing no greater or honorable cause. Help me understand this mentality... explain your reasoning. If it wasn't such a hassle commenting on Red State,  this is how I'd reply, and have before. (video).  Interpolate. ”