Understand the electoral college (and bitch slap your know-it-all college kid)

Filed under 'Poll Manipulation'

Fox News Poll Claims Roy Moore Losing Despite Faulty Numbers That poll stands in striking contrast to a Fox10/Strategy Research poll of 3,000 likely voters in Alabama released on Wednesday and conducted on Monday of this week that shows Moore with a six point lead over Jones, 49 percent to 43 percent, with a two percent margin of error. The 14 point differential between the two polls conducted over the same three day period contributes to the great uncertainty surrounding the election thrown into chaos by unsubstantiated allegations of sexual harassment made against Judge Moore over the past week by several women. [FULL]

Polling Schicklgruber

Stuff I found in the attic

SCROLL Der BERLINER TIMES Der Berliner /Hitler Scandal Poll Results (The Barmat Scandal was often used later in Nazi propaganda, both as an electoral strategy and as an appeal to anti-Semitism.) Friday, February 20, 1938 The latest Der Berliner poll is based on random street interviews with 1,026 adults on February 17-18. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.0 percentage points.   1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Der Fuhrer is handling his job as Der Fuhrer?            ------Approve-----------    -------Disapprove--------   No            NET   Strongly   Somewhat    NET   Somewhat   Strongly  opin. 2/18/38     67     NA         NA         30      NA        NA        3 1/30/38     69     NA         NA         27      NA        NA        4 1/29/38     68     NA         NA         27      NA        NA        5 1/26/38     60     NA         NA         35      NA        NA        4 1/25/38     59     31         28         37      13        25        4 1/24/38     57     30         26         40      13        27        3 1/19/38     60     24         36         35      15        19        5 1/13/38     62     NA         NA         31      NA        NA        7 11/12/37    59     NA         NA         35      NA        NA        6 10/13/37    59     NA         NA         36      NA        NA        6 8/27/37     58     NA         NA         37      NA        NA        5 7/8/37      64     NA         NA         31      NA        NA        5 6/8/37      59     NA         NA         36      NA        NA        5 4/24/37     56     NA         NA         39      NA        NA        5 3/25/37     56     NA         NA         33      NA        NA       11 3/9/37      55     NA         NA         41      NA        NA        4 10/8/36*    58     NA         NA         38      NA        NA        4 10/8/36**   59     NA         NA         37      NA        NA        4 9/4/36**    57     NA         NA         38      NA        NA        4 8/5/36      59     NA         NA         37      NA        NA        4 6/30/36     56     NA         NA         39      NA        NA        5 5/22/36     58     20         37         39      17        22        3 3/31/36     52     21         30         40      16        25        8 3/17/36     53     19         34         45      19        26        2 3/10/36     55     23         32         40      17        24        4 4/21/36     51     NA         NA         43      NA        NA        6 1/7/36      53     22         31         43      16        28        4 11/19/36    54     NA         NA         41      NA        NA        5 11/13/36    54     20         34         41      20        21        5 10/1/36     52     17         35         43      19        24        5 7/17/36     51     14         37         45      20        25        4 6/8/36      47     NA         NA         45      NA        NA        8 5/14/36     56     20         36         41      23        18        3 3/19/36     52     17         35         45      19        26        3 3/5/36      46     NA         NA         49      NA        NA        4 1/29/36     54     20         34         43      21        22        3 1/4/36      45     13         31         51      22        29        5 12/20/35    44     NA         NA         50      NA        NA        6 11/6/35**   52     20         32         43      16        26        5 10/31/35    48     17         31         49      19        30        3 10/23/35    49     18         31         48      19        29        4 10/9/35     45     13         32         51      21        30        4    * Likely voters ** Registered voters 2. I'm going to read you some statements. After each please tell me whether or not each applies to Der Fuhrer or not. How about (READ ITEM) does it apply to der Fuhrer, or not? SUMMARY TABLE:                                                 No                                   Yes    No    opin.  A. He is honest and     trustworthy                     40    55      5 B. He has high personal moral          and ethical standards           28    66      6 C. He understands the problems         of people like you              63    35      2 D. He has done a good job keeping    the economy strong              80    18      1 E. He is a strong leader           68    31      1 Trend (where available): A. He is honest and trustworthy                Yes    No    No opin. 2/18/38         40    55       5 6/8/37          37    59       4 1/15/37         42    54       4 1/6/37          42    53       5 11/3/36#        43    52       6 11/3/36##       42    52       6 9/4/36##        43    52       5 8/5/36          44    52       4 6/30/36         40    54       6 3/17/36         44    53       2 4/5/35          42    55       2 3/27/34*        54    42       4        *Wording "and trustworthy" omitted # Likely voters ## Registered voters B. He has high personal moral and ethical standards                Yes    No    No opin. 2/18/38         28    66       6 6/8/37          41    54       4 1/15/37         40    55       4 1/6/37 ##       39    56       5 8/5/36          45    51       4 6/30/36         40    54       6 3/17/36         44    54       3 4/5/35          51    46       4 10/31/34        44    49       7 ## Registered voters C. He understands the problems of people like you                 Yes    No    No opin. 2/18/38          63    35       2 6/8/37           52    45       3 1/15/37          50    49       2 9/4/36 ##        57    40       2 8/5/36           55    43       2 6/30/36          56    41       3  understands the needs and problems of average Americans" # Likely voters ## Registered voters E. He is a strong leader             Yes    No    No opin. 2/18/38      68    31        1 3/17/36      50    49        1 6/8/35       37    61        2 3/5/35       38    61        1 10/31/34     43    56        1   # Likely voters ## Registered voters 3. Do you like the way der Fuhrer is handling the Jewish problem?                      Favorable    Unfavorable    No opinion 2/18/38                56            41               3 1/25/38***            54            42               5 1/24/98**             51            44               5 1/19/38                59            35               6 1/12/38                59            33               7 10/13/37              59            37               4 9/10/37                57            38               5

Sharp as a tack, wot

Report: Dem pollsters worried that attacks on Trump not sticking

Doug Schoen Just Now Learned ...

We’re way beyond media bias. They are all-in. The media is the Hillary Clinton campaign staff. There’s not even a pretense of objectivity. It’s so bad, the New York Times had to write a front-page story last weekend talking about how painful it is for real journalists for the first time in their careers out of a sense of duty to adopt an oppositional stance to a candidate. They’ve never done that before, and since they’ve had to do it with Trump, it also looks like they’re pro-Hillary, and they’re so uncomfortable with this!  (Rush Limbaugh 8/15/2016)

Doug Schoen Just Now Learned Who the Clintons Are? October 31, 2016  BEGIN TRANSCRIPT RUSH: Grab sound bite number eight.  This is Doug Schoen.  Doug Schoen is a longtime Clinton strategist, pollster, ally, supporter.  He was on the Fox Report last night talking to Harris Faulkner, and she said, "What's your reaction to the FBI reopening this case?" SCHOEN:  I have been a supporter of Secretary Clinton.  But -- and the "but" is a big deal, at least to me -- given that this investigation is gonna go on for many months, if the secretary of state wins, we will have a president under criminal investigation with Huma Abedin under investigation -- the secretary of state, the president-elect, should she win, under investigation. Harris, under these circumstances I am actively reassessing my support. [FULL]  But Wait!  The New York Times strikes back with a (I'm dying here boss) vengeance! And, Holy Catfish Andy!  Hillary maintaines her 6 point  lead over Trump according to NBC's vaunted on line poll. OMG. But we're not counting our chickens by a long-shot. Me and MoSup are in the third day of another Novena for the Election.  I said bread and water. You're welcome.

The New York Times speaks:

More crap upon which we must not put For now, at least, Hillary Clinton has a 76 percent chance of defeating Donald Trump to become president of the United States. A victory by Mr. Trump remains quite possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same probability that an N.B.A. player will miss a free throw. This electoral probability, the first forecast by the Upshot’s presidential prediction model, is based on the voting history of each state and on roughly 300 state and national polls of the race conducted since mid-April. Our model suggests Mrs. Clinton is a strong favorite in 14 states and the District of Columbia, enough to give her 186 of the 270 electoral votes she needs to win the White House. Add to this eight more states that polls currently show are leaning Democratic — including Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania — and Mrs. Clinton would have 275 electoral votes and the presidency. [FULL] Give this much to the New York Times; they never, ever, give up. Like here. Cutting to the chase: Whence a model for this historic election?  When in the past have we seen open terrorist campaigns to kill police officers— while the POTUS blames the cops? When has a major party's presidential candidate  faced certain criminal indictment, and brazenly been let off the hook by a crooked DOJ?   When have a majority of Americans felt that they have one last chance to save the Union with their vote?  There is no "model."  Not in this country. The only way Hillary Clinton becomes President is through blatant vote manipulation that sends the nation into open rebellion, and martial law imposed. I do not rule that part out.

What I Would do

Conservative Voters Give Pollsters Politically Correct Answers . . . and Then They Vote “There is a pro-Labor and anti-Conservative bias in polls.” Two examples of “herding” in the 2014 election appeared in the Kansas and Virginia Senate races. Pollsters there didn’t release their numbers because they deviated too much from what others showed. In that way, Virginia voters were badly served because no late published poll caught Republican Ed Gillespie’s last-minute surge that almost defeated Democratic incumbent Mark Warner. This is playing with dynamite. Pollsters in Britain have long realized the potential polling problem created by the “shy Tory” vote — referring to those voters who don’t want to admit to pollsters that they are going against the grain of media coverage and might cast a politically incorrect vote. But this is the third time in 50 years that the shy Tories have swung an election (it also happened in 1970 and 1992). Apparently, polling companies haven’t been able to solve the problem. Chris Hanretty, the academic who advised the BBC on polling, told Britain’s Guardian newspaper that he feels “a little bit foolish,” in the wake of the election. “We categorically ruled out a [Conservative] majority. . . . We should have expected far more ‘shy Tories.’” Pollster Stephen Fisher also told the Guardian that the problem is more complex than that. Noting that polling companies have consistently exaggerated the Labor vote since the 1970s, he concluded: “Polling companies have done a lot of work to try to counteract this, but it keeps happening. There is a pro-Labor and anti-Conservative bias in polls.” As in, like everywhere, polls are morphed—or maybe always have been—into a device to manipulate votes to benefit the media' predilections.  Which are nearly always "progressive" .  I'd outlaw publishing any poll result  during the 30 days prior to election.  Contact me if you'd like a copy of my best selling book "Why I Should be Supreme Ruler," if it's ever published.

Those are my choices?

Have you stopped beating your wife? Rather bizarre polls via Rant Political, wot? Re: the "worst president" poll,  I'll guess that the author's editor inserted a picture of the obvious answer out of shame.  And if we're honest, the "greatest president poll"  choices are easily usable for both.  By the by, the Pearl Harbor facts slide show are "little known" only if you learned U.S. history by reading Howard Zinn.

Media Crap

POLL: One-third of Americans would take 'under God' out of pledge...  but, then ... POLL: One-third of Americans approve of Obama's performance

Throw the Bums Out

NBC/WSJ poll: 60 percent say fire every member of Congress (But give Dems and Obama more power)

1                     2                                                                          3{      4                 5                                                6                                                       Good Idea?                                                             7                                                                         8                                       OBAMA? WTF?                                                                                  9 MSNBC-WSJ Poll

You probably saw Throw the bums out on Drudge.  Given that it's an MSNBC story, I wanted to see the polling questions (which you can find here).  It stops short of being a  push-pull poll, but as you can see those polled were 44% Obama voters v. 35% Romney voters.  So there's that. Also in the mix of Drudge headlines today is  GOP approval rating hits lowest point in Gallup poll history. What does that mean?   The world of  good versus evil is traditionally  Republicans v Democrats, but that's now a distortion.  If  voting for a  Republican will get me a George Bush instead of an Al Gore,  or a John Kerry, it's no contest. But distinctions  between the two parties, once in office, are small.  I am Teaparty Republican, a distinction this poll seems to recognize (3).. Adding then the very positive approval of  Republicans (7) and Tea Party (9)  results in 16-14 edge over the very positive Dem approvals).  The numbers in  (8) similarly give the Teaparty/GOP amalgam a 45-39% win over the Dems.   Obama's 47% approval belies the numbers of other polls that show him at historical lows. The other tables also speak for themselves here.  I numbered them to make comments easier, if there are to be any.  This poll exercise then is, per usual, nothing more than Democrat Media  making news they can then spin into gold from the fecal matter they began with.

Everything -- Except the Polls --

2012   Everything -- Except the Polls -- Points to a Romney Landslide “ BEGIN TRANSCRIPT RUSH:  Well, the Drive-Bys are all excited because Romney has announced he's going back to Ohio tomorrow.  On Election Day, Romney is going to Ohio, and the Drive-Bys are trying to interpret that as meaning it's slipping away.  Romney has to head back into Ohio on Election Day because it's slipping away.  The Drive-Bys are all excited by their own polling data. But then I go back to: "Why would CNN put a poll out...? If it's that easy to figure out this poll is wrong, why would they do it?" Well, the answer is: "Well, they're in the tank for Obama and they want to do anything they can to help." ... You know, common sense tells me this election isn't gonna be close and shouldn't be.  And yet every poll, every single poll, has this race tied.  Obama's up one, down one, tied, doesn't matter where you go, 'til you get into the internals, then it gets really confusing or it doesn't make any sense. I'm just gonna be honest with you, for the longest time -- and you people that have been regular listeners know this.  I have said that as we get down to the election, the polls are gonna reflect what's really gonna happen because the pollsters want to get it right for the future.  That has not happened.  It has not happened.  There's not one poll that gives either candidate an edge, not one pollster is willing to stick his neck out here.  They're all saying that this is tied, every which way from Sunday, at least in the overall popular vote, national surveys.  Now, when you get into the internals it looks a little odd, and we're gonna do that here at the beginning. Now, for example, let's look at the latest CNN poll, the final CNN national poll.  It has the race tied at 49.  By the way, in none of these national polls is Barack Obama at 50, and they keep telling us, they've told us for decades, for years, for months, for weeks, that an incumbent who doesn't get to 50 is in big trouble, and that traditionally has been true.  Here are the internals of the CNN poll.  The sample is Democrat plus 11.  The Democrat turnout margin in 2008 was plus seven.  They're saying it's going to be plus 11 Democrats tomorrow in this poll.  In 2004 and 2010, it was even, the Democrats and Republicans were evenly split.  In addition to all of this, in addition to a Democrat sample of plus 11, Romney is up 22 points with independents. In 2000 ...  I said the race was either Gore plus one or two or it was tied, Gore-Bush. I said, "Paula, I just don't believe the polls. I don't think these polls are anywhere near accurate." Well they were, as we all know. They were. In fact, Gore won the popular vote in 2000. So I'm a little reticent to just reject these polls. I've been bitten once doing that. But still, you know, all of my thinking says Romney big. I so profoundly disagree with that but simply in common sense, not scientifically.  I'm not a pollster, I'm just a common sense observer.  I look at what caused the massive 2010 Republican turnout and then I ask myself, has anything changed since 2010?  Yeah, it's gotten worse.  The enthusiasm that got people out in 2010 I'm seeing at every Mitt Romney rally.  ... ... Romney's drawing crowds of 20,000, 25,000, 30,000, 15,000.  The enthusiasm that we all saw in 2010 is there.  The same issues that existed in 2010 exist today.  There hasn't been anything that's gotten better. ... BREAK TRANSCRIPT RUSH: Now, in this CNN poll, one other thing about it. You have to go down to the 29th page of the PDF file to find their methodology. That Democrat-plus-11 sample? It's page 29 on the CNN release. In other words, they don't expect anybody to get anywhere near discovering that that is their sample in their poll. [Full transcript - do read the whole thing] I'm feeling the same way.  I can't think of a time where I felt so in the mainstream of American "feeling"  as I do now ( I'm citing just two- 1980, and 2010) , and was wrong about the election.  Still, any nation capable of reelecting Bill Clinton, or electing an unknown leftist like Obama, is capable of anything.  I am still confident, but this helped. ”

American Agonistes

Fear upon being rolled into the operating room (for what should be a simple tonsillectomy) “ Dick Morris writes, "In The Last Few Hours…Sudden Danger Signs In Polling." He recounts how in 2000, the Sunday before the election revelation about a years-old DUI conviction against Bush (supposedly) allowed Gore to pull even in the polls.  So how is it that in our high-tech universe of flawlessly functioning electronic gadgets, voting machines are the only ones prone to human-like "error"? If there's an explanation other than human meddling, again, I'd truly like to hear it. Experts, feel free to weigh in. I remember that. It was before we knew about the democrat party strategy for putting losers into office, so I accepted that the electorate could spin on a dime over something as trivial as that (Bush had already admitted his alcohol problem as a young man).  In retrospect, I know now that what the Democrats needed was a plausible reason for Al Gore's implausible, engineered win two days later.  Except, while coming close, they couldn't quite pull the Florida caper off (thanks to some Freepers who wouldn't let Miami vote counters move the recount to a back room, and out of sight), even though Gore had 2 million lawyers in Florida beforehand . As things stand now, every indication is that Obama is going to be murdered at the polls on Tuesday, as he evidently has been in early voting (based on who's voting).  Stories like these from Glenn Reynolds are so abundant that I don't even bother to single them out any more. WOMEN’S BLOGSITE ATTACK ON ROMNEY fails even with its own commenters. ROMNEY UP BY 1 in DEEP BLUE MINNESOTA:  My Sunday Washington Examiner column: The Ground Glass Election. Based on this quote from a blog commenter: “Romney was not my first, second, or third choice, but I will crawl over ground glass to vote for him.” While it's easy to skip over Dick  Morris, Rasmussen  has far more cred.  He is in fact the only pollster I have any faith in, because he's always right.  Always (but then so was Zogby-for awhile). So how do we account for this ? The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows the race tied, with President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 48% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are still undecided. See daily tracking history. It's mind blowingly counter intuitive at this point.  I've thought on this all night (really), and my conclusion is that we are dealing here with the communist party.  There's Obama's BFF,  Venezuela's "President for Life"  Hugo Chávez, and his  involvement  with U.S. voting machines?  So this American Thinker article,  Can Democrat-leaning Voting Machines Win Election for Obama? does shiver me timbers. “ Innocent malfunction...or something else? Whatever the case, this has already happened to voters in states such as Nevada, Ohio, Kansas, North Carolina, Missouri, and Colorado -- four of which are swing states. ...../ I'll make my case. First, all these stories about uncooperative machines involve votes switched in only one direction: Barack Obama's. Would this be possible if at issue were merely innocent errors? If it isn't true that these malfunctions are curiously monolithic in favor of the president, then where are the news stories to that effect?  ...  we've all used ATMs, and most everyone ... has something such as an iPod. Now, have you ever, anytime, anywhere, had one of these electronic devices switch data input on you? So how is it that in our high-tech universe of flawlessly functioning electronic gadgets, voting machines are the only ones prone to human-like "error"? If there's an explanation other than human meddling, again, I'd truly like to hear it. Experts, feel free to weigh in. [full] ”   What of  Rasmussen?  Well, if you're going to jigger poll results, and you have the expertise and resources of the Democrat Media complex, you reverse engineer him, and play to  his polling methods. That's all I have at this point. We'll see. I think our nation is at a tipping point.  Should Obama emerge as the surprise winner Tuesday, most people will see foul play, and be properly outraged.  And?  And nothing.  There will be nothing anyone can do about it.  There will be no spontaneous march on Washington by pitchfork bearing populace.  The nation's only hope at that point would be a military coup to wrest control of the nation from the Obamunist party rule.  And even then, we shall have lost. Well, maybe not.  Britain survived Cromwell.   I'd take a coup (Jeffersonian activism?) over a killer second Obama term.  ”

Magic Poll Make-up Time?

Begin The Magical Mystery Polls! “ Here we are,  finally.  The last few weeks before the Obama referendum.   The man has had absolutely no good news, accomplishments (ever?), nor a lead in any major poll for about a month.  Even the subservient Gallup Poll has had Romney @ +6 for a week.  What does this all mean?  Yes, scruffy fellow in the rear—? El correct-o scruffy fellow! Obama will magically begin to close the gap, and actually surpass Romney.  How will this happen?  Yes, first row micro mini dress lady—? Right you are pretty lady.  It will happen because it must happen, lest Demo voters become so demoralized that they don't bother to vote, and even Amy Biviano loses.  Gird your loins fellows! Aside.  I note that quite a few senate races are still polled as iffy for the good guys.  But remember, every one of those polls are using 2008 Dem turnout numbers in their projections.     So drop your leaflets and demoralize, demoralize, demoralize! ”

Late Undecideds Don't Vote

Today's Clue “ *98.3% who say they're undecided at this point won't vote anyway. so who cares?  Nobody but media pollsters who see them as good "push-pull" fodder. *Nations Fact Bureau ”

Eye Bending Pollsters

The art of Trompe-l'oei* Polling Evidently John Zogby had Obama leading Romney by 9 percentage-points last week.  Else today he'd have to put Romeny up 9 percentage-points.