TRUMP SLAYS BEAST?

Latest Presidential Poll Shows Donald Trump beating Hillary Clinton in Head to Head Contest If this turns out to be the case, it's good news for another reason, aside from the obvious.  Thirty years ago I calculated that 28% of us would vote Vladimir Lenin for president.  By that calculus it appears we've degenerated by a scant 2%; much lower than I'd have guessed.

News from the Asylum

Democrat Media Monkeys If you read poll results showing that the most admired man in the world was Napolean Bonaparte, you'd know what?  That's right.  You'd know the poll was taken at the asylem where Napoleans live  in at least 7 cells on three wards.  What else could it be? Which takes us to ... GALLUP: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton Extend Run as Most Admired - The details

How dumb are they Johnny?

Thirty-one percent of Democrats said Obama is always truthful.

Romney leads in Chicago suburbs

That toddlin' town

What Real Pollsters Do

On Polls - Good Bad and Ugly From A Campaign Warrior  Part 1, What Real Pollsters Do “ First, let me lay out the difference between pollsters who want the truth and those who want to drive news cycles for media clients. Most of the best Democrat and GOP pollsters are people you have scantly heard about because their clients are not news outlets, but are instead campaigns, party committees and outside groups who need to target their spending and messaging. For example, a veteran GOP pollster told me once that he never polls the South or certain Midwestern states on Wednesday. The reason is because prayer groups and or Wednesday congregation will automatically cause an under sampling of his client’s core supporters. None of these firms do media polls. Rarely will they release their results publicly unless it is to counter a series of poorly done media polls at the client’s request. They are paid to be accurate and to tell the truth. Being on MSNBC or Fox is not how they make their living. It is no coincidence that most of these guys, Democrat or Republican generally come back with almost identical numbers when they go in the field at the same time. Why do you think the two POTUS campaigns schedule their stops in the same state? Both campaigns have roughly the same numbers on a nightly basis. Lying to your client could cost said pollster work down the road, especially if the sunshine pumping causes decisions that lead to a loss. An old pollster friend has told me many times in races – they (the Dems) see the same thing we do. Over the years a number of today's media rock stars cut their teeth on Free Republic.  Ann Coulter and News Busters' Mark Finkelstein come immediately to mind. This chap, "GOPFlack" may join them,  based on this work.  Of course it's possible that this is Karl Rove, working sub rosa, but no matter.   ”

Jummy II gets the news early

Oh My

More Poll Crap

Barone: When it comes to polls, readers beware   Michael Barone is one of the few observers of the political scene whom I still respect. That doesn't mean he's always right, it means I think he earnestly tries to get it right.  Here he weighs in on the "controversy over whether the polls are accurate."  This point has been made in the past, but I've not seen it articulated this election cycle. “ ...  today the percentage of households without land-line phones is increasing. Under federal law, cellphone numbers have to be hand-dialed rather than dialed by computer, as land-line numbers are now even when live interviewers ask the questions. Cellphone-only individuals tend to be younger and more Democratic than land-line owners. Most pollsters are conducting a set number of interviews with cellphone-only households. But they can only guess at what percentage of the electorate they'll constitute. Oversample them and you'll get overly Democratic results. ”   Barone sees some indication that the blasé Democrat base is more motivated since their convention, but there are so many variables (like "discrepancies between exit polls and actual results were in precincts where the interviewers were female graduate students) that it's all a crap-shoot.  Rush Limbaugh of course goes at it his own way.   And, more succinctly: “ "Voter registration in [Ohio] is down by 490,000 people from four years ago. Of that reduction, 44% is in Cleveland and surrounding Cuyahoga County, where Democrats outnumber Republicans more than two to one. ... An August study by the left-leaning think tank Third Way showed that the Democratic voter registration decline in eight key swing states outnumbered the Republican decline by a 10-to-one ratio. "In Florida, Democratic registration is down 4.9%, in Iowa down 9.5%. And," get this: In New Hampshire, where this NBC poll says Obama is pulling away now, Democrat voter registration is down 19.7%. (New Castrati impression) "So, Mr. Limbaugh? What does that have to do with it?"  I'll tell you what it has to do with it, Mr. New Castrati.  It means that oversampling of Democrats in these polls is ridiculous. ”

Bull Shit Polls

STOP THIS DAMMIT!

".. based on our analysis ... ."

Today's Dysfunctional Disconnect Based on HuffPost Pollster charts and analysis Wow! Every 2008 Obama voter is chomping at the bit to reelect him, while blasé Romney supporters will stay home.  Who knew?  Huffington even out-liberals the New York Times, who themselves have somehow discovered that Obama is 20 electoral votes more popular today than he was back in March! Of course this is all about  trying to create an air of urgent possibility among Dem voters.  Lest they stay home, and  Congressional Black Caucus members are the only Donks elected.

Snopes Junior

This is the most hilarious thing I've seen this election cycle. The American Pulse looks like Snopes on steroids.  Here's yesterday's National Poll as submitted by ma perkins.  Is Mitt Romney ready to take over America's Foreign Policy? Yes No Thus far what grade do you give Romney's foreign trip? A B C D F Are Republicans trying to surppress [sic] the Black vote under the guise of voter fraud? Yes No Will Romney's choice for Vice President change your vote? Yes No Are you in favor of an Israeli military strike against Iran? Yes No Which candidate is more concerned about growing the middle class? Obama Romney Should there be more restrictions or more enforcement of current gun control laws? More Restrictions More Enforcement of Current Laws Which candidate is being more truthful with the American People? Barack Obama Mitt Romney Which candidate is connecting best with you? Barack Obama Mitt Romney Is it time for America to deal with gun control honestly? Yes No Which would vote for a candidate that tells America the truth or your Party's candidate? A candidate that tells the truth. My Party's candidate. So what's the point?  Anyone browsing in places where this agitprop is  presented as  legitimate  is so brain dead that they, if they do vote, have already decided Democrats are the answer to some obscene question. Sheesh.

Media King Makres

Hitler's Mustache                Media King Makers

“ For the sake of this argument, go with me.  The sports media last September made the Indianapolis Colts the prohibitive favorite to win the  AFC,  and represent that conference in the Super Bowl  M'kay?   Every week for the rest of the season they asked fans, "What NFC  team will beat the Colts in the Super Bowl?"  Here's the first week's results. Polling Data September 1 Team Favorite to beat COLTS  (%)  Spread (%) Dallas Cowboys 6.25 93.75 New York Giants 6.25  93.75 Philadelphia Eagles 6.25 93.75 Washington Redskins 6.25 93.75 Chicago Bears 6.25 93.75 Detroit Lions 6.25 93.75 Green Bay Packers 6.25 93.75 Minnesota Vikings 6.25 93.75 Atlanta Falcons 6.25 93.75 Carolina Panthers 6.25 93.75 New Orleans Saints 6.25 93.75 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6.25 93.75 Arizona Cardinals 6.25 93.75 St. Louis Rams 6.25 93.75 San Francisco 49ers 6.25 93.75 Seattle Seahawks 6.25 93.75 What you're looking at then,  is  this sorryass poll Polling Data (Plug in your own "Team") Poll Date Sample Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread RCP Average 2/8 - 2/23 -- 48.9 44.1 Obama +4.8 Rasmussen Tracking 2/21 - 2/23 1500 LV 48 41 Obama +7 Associated Press/GfK 2/16 - 2/20 1000 A 51 43 Obama +8 USA Today/Gallup 2/16 - 2/19 898 RV 46 50 Romney +4 Quinnipiac 2/14 - 2/20 2605 RV 46 44 Obama +2 Democracy Corps (D) 2/11 - 2/14 1000 LV 49 45 Obama +4 CNN/Opinion Research 2/10 - 2/13 937 RV 51 46 Obama +5 CBS News/NY Times 2/8 - 2/13 1604 RV 48 42 Obama +6 PPP (D) 2/9 - 2/12 1200 RV 49 42 Obama +7 Pew Research 2/8 - 2/12 1172 RV 52 44 Obama +8 FOX News 2/6 - 2/9 1110 RV 47 42 Obama +5 I'm painting with a broad brush here, but all these data do is give democrat punters a wet dream.  In reality,  it shows one of the least popular Republican candidates able to get substantial votes from fans of the Texas Pauls, Georgia Newts, and Pennsylvania What's His Face's  to come within a FG of beating the Kenyan Commies..  A sterile exercise, at best.  At best.  Oui? ”

Bravo Sierra Polls

Tom Smith responds to "20% of Republicans leaning towards Obama"

“ So I read this poll because the headlines are "20% of Republicans leaning towards Obama" and thought 'no fricken way! That really aint the headline. Drill through the details and there are a bunch of better headlines 64% of people under $50k are not making Obama a definite choice. 43% of independent would choose Gingrich or Romney over Obama 28% of democrats would vote consider NOT voting for Obama 39% of blacks would support someone other than Obama 51% of hispanics would support someone other than Obama Over 50% of those under 20 years old would vote for someone other than Obama What makes me think that a good number of people taking this poll were having sex and not paying attention while answering the questions (sez sumpin about who they were with) is that 15% of "very conservative" voters would vote for Obama. How ever you cut this down the headline is very misleading and Obama has little chance of getting re-elected. I know, I know, we can't be complacent and this will be spun as a close race all the way to the morning after but I doubt this clown will get but a few states in the general election. All props to Tom for showing how to use his noodle.  I mean his head of course.  Er, the cranium.   ”

A Rotter's Poll

Most Admired People WTF?     Well, it is Gallup, a Democrat Media Complex component — but still

“ ” George Bush must be embarrassed as hell to find himself with this lot.

A favorite pole and Hillary eats it ...

THIS JUST IN EATING CORN DOGS ON THE HUSTINGS

This is funny.  The "poll" finds that people who rejected one asshat crook in favor of another asshat crook now have buyer's remorse and the answer is to switch back to asshat crook number one.

Pushing Mitt

Gallup poll?  Oh. Nevermind

“ TheDC's Alexis Levinson reports: "President Barack Obama would tie with Rick Perry, lose to Mitt McCain and face a tough race against Ron Paul or Michele Bachmann in a head-to-head race, according to a nationwide Gallup poll released Monday. Romney is the strongest candidate against the sitting president, leading Obama 48 to 46 percent among registered voters. Perry, who has been in the race for just over a week, ties with Obama, both receiving 47 percent of the vote. Obama narrowly beats out Ron Paul, 47 to 45 percent, and holds only a slightly larger lead against Michele Bachmann” 48 to 44 percent." Maybe Obama shouldn't have worked so hard to knock Trump out of the race. He was doing fine against that dude. [Jim Thatcher] ”

The Emporor's a naked wetback on a Trojan horse

Barry's New Clothes Poll: A Donald Trump Surprise

LOL!! How has Trump come from nowhere to be nearly atop the 2012 GOP presidential polls?  It's simple.  He's the only one to question daily Obama's constitutional right to hold the office now.  There are a crapload of real people out there who know a naked man on a Trojan horse when they see one, and  they don't give a rat's ass if Soros people call them names.  Politicians are quick to get on a winning horse, so I suspect it's just hours now before all of them are showing they have a sack too (and of course they do not - it'll just be a fig-ment).

When The DNC Does Republican Polling

The Choice of the DNC TOO! So There's That ...

A Poll

Your reaction if a meteor struck the Capitol while the SOTU address is being given this year, and every person in government is vaporized?
	Oh, the Humanity!
	Let's erect statues in memory of the 90 or so good Republicans who were sacrificed for the greater good.
	USA UAS USA
Free polls from Pollhost.com

PPP v. Rasmussen

SHOOT-OUT

“ Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, shows West Virginia's Democratic governor and Senate candidate Joe Manchin with a 6-point lead over Republican John Raese, 50% to 44%. Two weeks ago, PPP put Manchin up 3 points over Raese, while Rasmussen showed Raese with a 7-point lead six days ago. The fact that PPP predicts a more Democratic electorate than Rasmussen does explains a good deal of the difference between the two polls. Rasmussen's partisan spread in its poll a week ago was 48% Democrat, 35% Republican, 17% independent. PPP's partisan spread is 55% Democrat, 35% Republican, 11% independent. According to exit polls, Rasmussen is predicting the partisan spread ... [continued] My experience is these are the only two pollsters to pay attention to, based on recent past performance. One of them will be going down.  My money says Rasmussen will be left standing.

Ruh-Roh for 'crats

So chug-chug-a-lug

In 2008 Scott Elliott's Election Projection annoyed me. Kept dashing my hopes ( to Scott's ultimate credit)  by failing to confirm upside McCain  projections from other services.   Bastid!  I will characterize EP as very cautious, meaning no wild swings.  To the extent that I detect a bias, it leans Democrat (I see bias in everything). That said, here's a few paragraphs from a  subscriber newsletter  received 30 minutes ago.  “ The House picture, at least in terms of which party will be the majority come January, is clearing up considerably.  Barring something crazy, the GOP will win at least the 39 seats they need to become the party in power in the House - you can take that to the bank from The Blogging Caesar.  The question in my mind now is just how many they can win.  Claims of 70 to 100 may be far-fetched, but I'd be surprised if Republicans don't eclipse the 52 seats they won in 1994.  How high the ceiling is, no one knows.  When John Dingell is in trouble in Michigan, it has to be very very high.   In the Senate, Sharron Angle, Dino Rossi and John Raese are realizing gains in the polls that put the GOP in decent shape to take the majority there as well.  I am not declaring a Senate GOP majority yet, but the odds are improving.  I'd say they are around 40% now.  That's a marked improvement from the very long odds we saw after Christine O'Donnell won the Delaware primary a few weeks ago.  With Angle moving ahead of Harry Reid this week, the projection for the Senate is deadlocked at 50-50.  And if Rossi's position in the polls out of Washington stay where the latest surveys put him, that seat could be colored red shortly. So much for Speaker Hankey's most recent  bloviation.