Handicapping 2010

The 2011 Senate

"Cum 'on, train!" On January 6th the Weekly Standard's  Matthew Continnetti handicapped the Republican chances of taking the Senate. Let's see how that's working out. Connecticut - Dodd was toast, but popular Connecticut AG Dick Blumenthal, a Democrat, is expected to announce tomorrow that he'll run for Dodd's seat, and an early poll shows him winning by 30 points. Rasmussen -Blumenthal leading former GOP Congressman Rob Simmons 56% to 33%. A month ago, Simmons had a 13-point lead over Dodd. NC North Dakota - North Dakota governor John Hoeven, a Republican, is expected to run for Dorgan's seat and win handily. Gov. John Hoeven has announced his candidacy for the U.S. Senate seat - Unless something absolutely unforeseen happens, Hoeven will become the Republican Party nominee to run + Nevada - Senate majority leader Harry Reid as the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent; Reid has a high disapproval rating and trails his Republican challengers in polls. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in Nevada finds Reid earning just 36% of the vote against his two top Republican challengers. That’s a seven-point drop from 43% a month ago. Reid, who is seeking a fifth term, received 61% of the final vote in 2004.Real Clear Politics - Tarkanian +10 over Reid + Republican chances of flipping Democratic seats in Delaware, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Colorado also look good. Delaware - Rasmussen Reports Castle +5 RCP Average  Castle +1.7 Illinois - RCP AVG Giannoulias (D) +3 PPP - Even Pennsylvania - Rasmussen - Toomey (R) +9 Colorado - Rasmussen Frazier (R) +1 + ? + + And with the right candidate, the GOP could also be competitive in the New York, California, and Arkansas races. Heck, the GOP seems to be competitive in Massachusetts right now. New York RCP AVG Pataki (R) +.5  Rasmussen Reports Gillibrand (D) +3 California - Rasmussen Reports  Boxer (D) + 3 Arkansas -Rasmussen Reports Hendren (R) +8 ? ? + So let's follow Toby Harnden's lead and say Republicans hold on to seats in Florida, New Hampshire, Kentucky, Ohio, Louisiana, and Missouri. And let's say they sweep the competitions listed above. Even if the Republicans sweep the field without losing any ground--this probably won't happen--Harnden notes that the GOP would control 49 seats and the Democrats would control 51. Harnden: But what if Joe Lieberman (I) flipped to the Republican party? Very possible, particularly if he was induced with a juicy committee chairmanship. That would mean 50-50. But still Vice-President Joe Biden would hold the casting vote. Even in this (wildly optimistic) scenario, then, Republicans still wouldn't control the Senate. Unless, of course, Scott Brown defeats Martha Coakley this month in Massachusetts ... ” Click-Click

Tea Party Cancer?

Sabotage?

A critical moment for any spontaneously successful movement is the formation of a governing structure.  Red  State's  Erick Erickson says the upcoming Tea Party convention " looks scammy," and I agree. My first thought: GOP hardliners are involved. My second thought: Merde  merde merde !

A fine whine

Revelations: a Democrat Staffer's  Epiphanic Moment

Not as delicious as  John L. Jackley's Hill Rat, but good enough for gummint work

“ The worst is that I can't help but feel like the main emotion people in the caucus are feeling is relief at this turn of events. Now they have a ready excuse for not getting anything done. While I always thought we had the better ideas but the weaker messaging, it feels like somewhere along the line Members internalized a belief that we actually have weaker ideas. They're afraid to actually implement them and face the judgement of the voters. That's the scariest dynamic and what makes me think this will all come crashing down around us in November. [TPM Full] ”

You are getting hungry ... you are get -

Today's Random Burger

Testing New Year resolves since Jan 2nd.

Wanted -Under New Management Sign

Unshackle That Elephant!

I clipped this from Insta-Pundit's post election summary yesterday. Of course, what the GOP apparat does is less important nowadays than it was. As I noted before, there’s a whole lot of disintermediation going on here — Scott Brown got money and volunteers via the Internet and the Tea Party movement, to a much greater degree than he got them from the RNC. Smart candidates will realize that, too. And lies don’t work as well as they used to. Obama promised transparency and pragmatic good government, but delivered closed-door meetings and outrageous special-interest payoffs. This made people angry. If Republicans promise honesty and less-intrusive government, but go back to their old ways, the likelihood that the Tea Party will become a full-fledged third party is much greater. Are the Republicans smart enough to realize this? I don’t know. The Democrats weren’t smart enough to look at Virginia and New Jersey and realize that what they were doing was a mistake that would backfire. And on the third-party front, the Tea Party enthusiasm for Scott Brown bespeaks considerable pragmatism. Republicans who are seen as sellouts may face third-party challenges — or primary challenges, or both — but support for Brown indicates that people aren’t in a “take your marbles and go home” mode yet. Throwing a monkey-wrench into the ObamaCare works was seen as more important than getting the perfect candidate in, and that was a very wise move. I suspect that we’ll see similar pragmatism between now and November, but the GOP should also remember — as was shown in NY-23 — that making an example to encourage the others can be pragmatic, too. ” I'm in no way hinting at an ideo-parallel between the GOP apparat and the commie pigs from Animal Farm, but .. I do obviously think of  Michael Steele's Napoleon,  hiding under the bed until the battle is over, then giving himself a medal after a surprising victory.   The only way the GOP can regain it's vitality IMO, is to give Sarah Palin (sorry, but I can't think of anyone else I'd trust) the job of restructuring the party from the top down.   Restructuring means replacing the apparat with Tea Party veterans.  Axe-chop-whack.  Alear gets to stay. Newt doesn't. Dunderhead

auf Wiedersehen Barry

wtf

Caption

Better late than ...

SUPREME COURT READS FIRST AMT! *  WISE LATINA VOTES AGAINST IT. Court rules against corporate campaign spending curbs

Justice Kennedy, writing for the majority: When word concerning the plot of the movie "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington" reached the circles of Government, some officials sought, by persuasion, to discourage its distribution...  Under Austin, though, officials could have done more than discourage its distribution—they could have banned the film.  - ”   St. Anne had this on her site, sans story link

Getting Even

Conan Blows $1.5 Million on 60-Second Comedy Bit to Waste NBC’s Money

Juice

Pelosi Shot Down

Pelosi: I Don't Have the Votes to Pass the Senate Bill 2 days ago "Let’s remove all doubt. We will have health care one way or another.”

"We're not in a big rush," Pelosi said. "Pause, reflect."

A Coakley Laff-off

okely coakely

The Chicagoboyz are challenging readers to come up with Election Haikus.  I'm a limerick kind of guy, so take your  pick and give it a try. Chicago Boyz Barn Army Early and often Is no longer adequate. Will Dems move rightward? —- Barack Obama! Double down, you clever guy. We need more Scott Browns. —- Scourge of Amiraults, Martha was unappealing. (The best they could do?) There once was a man from Boston Who had very big balls, and he tossed 'em Into the ring Where he risked everything But it was worth all the money it cost him There once was a man from Nantucket Who gave Martha Coakley a bucket He said with a grin It's for you puking in 'Cause I'll kick you from here to Pawtucket

Spectacular

What a spectacle

A real spctacle! Stuart Haygarth turns discarded eye glasses into a gorgeously green glowing chandelier. Spectacle is an optical chandelier assembled from 1020 pairs of discarded prescription glasses, with a smaller size constructed from 620 pairs. The refracted light from the lenses makes fluid shadows that play across walls creating an aqueous lighting effect that shimmers as much as it delights. That would be about the number of prescription glasses I've lost.

Easy Money

In Passing

In passing

here's  everything you need to know at the water cooler

“ Krugman- He Wasn’t The One We’ve Been Waiting For Libs eating their dead Matthews, Dean Call Each Other Crazy Dean was floating the absurd argument that by choosing Scott Brown over Martha Coakley, voters were sending a secret coded message that they really wanted a health care bill . . . more liberal than the current Obamacare version.  In case you missed it: Terrorists are out to get us I’ve been tracking attempted terrorists attacks on the United States after 9/11... because it seemed no one else was. [via Cheryl Jones tweet] Earmarks for Donations in No. Va.   Before new-speak, Rep Jim Moran would be called the bribee Aside: check out  his Wikipedia entry for a look at Moran’s fisticuffical tendencies. System Failure There is one reason that White House should be thrilled about the Massachusetts Senate race. It crowded out news that came out of the stunning testimony of Obama administration officials Wednesday on the Christmas Day terrorist attack. [more ... Who Made the Decision on Abdulmutallab?] FPI Analysis: President Obama's Foreign Policy, Year One During Obama’s first year in the White House, the President has repeatedly sought to strike out on a new, more humble course for American foreign policy. But, aside from that Mike ... You crazy sons-of-bitches, you right-wingers. Do you not understand that the people you hold up as heroes bombed your goddamn country? Do you not understand that Glenn Beck and Sean Hannity and Rush Limbaugh and Bill O'Reilly are as complicit of the September 11, 2001 terror attack as any one of those dumb-ass fifteen who came from Saudi Arabia? Don’t you get that? The Fall of the House of Kennedy In 1962, President John F. Kennedy planted the seeds that grew the modern Democratic Party. That year, JFK signed executive order 10988 allowing the unionization of the federal work force. This changed everything in the American political system. (Audio version) I know you hate my guts, but marry me, and you'll learn to put up with me David Axelrod told the Washington Post that the health care bill has been such a drag that the only thing the party can do is to pass it and then hope it becomes more popular: Huntley man accused of illegally recording ex-girlfriend in the shower Talk about criminalizing a whole society.   Right?  Not me, of course. ”

Sweet Times

the value of time

To realize  The value of a sister/brother  Ask someone  Who doesn't have one.   To realize  The value of ten years:  Ask a newly  Divorced couple.    To realize  The value of four years:  Ask a graduate.    To realize  The value of one year:  Ask a student who  Has failed a final exam.   To realize    The value of nine months:  Ask a mother who gave birth to a stillborn.    To realize  The value of one month:  Ask a mother  Who has given birth to  A premature baby....  To realize  The value of one week:  Ask an editor of a weekly newspaper.   To realize  The value of one minute:  Ask a person  Who has missed the train, bus or plane.    To realize  The value of one-second:  Ask a person  Who has survived an accident.    Time waits for no one.    Treasure every moment you have.    You will treasure it even more when You can share it with someone special.   To realize the value of a friend or family member:   LOSE ONE. -anon Hucker sent this.

Hayseed Rhapsody

Gadgetry

GPS and Bread Crumbs

I bought MoSup that Garmin GPS I talked about the other day,  for her birthday. Garmin 265WT.  Actually, it was you guys who bought it for her, since I used my Pay Pal money.  She thanked me for you. We're  prolly the last people here to get one, and I'm blown away.  It did take several hours to get the initial satellite fix (too may trees here),  get  updated maps installed, etc.  Then I input addresses of peeps she goes to see, shopping, etc.  The upshot is that I'm something of an expert now; she can't turn it on.  MoSup's also worried that someone will steal it, which is a real problem.  A friend had his factory installed GPS ripped from his dashboard.  This is what I can't figure out.  The thing has a serial number. The thing accesses satellites.  Why can't I report it stolen, and Garmin tracks it's whereabouts?  First time used, the cops have a pin-point location.   Why not? The other exciting thing for me was, and I'm pretty embarrassed to tell you, what with me being a Kordon Blue trained chef, but it's Panko! Japanese bread crumbs.  HFS!  Never used Panko before for three reasons. Iwo Jima I make my own bread crumbs Never saw them in a grocery store until recently. Last night I used Panko to bread some (I think I'm getting Alzheimer's ... the flat fish.  Flounder!) Flounder, and WOW.  I want to "Panko" everything now.  I'm going to try fried peanut butter.  Dip some flattened, chilled PB in flour, egg wash, then Panko,  and fry.  I'll let you know.  Panko cannot be beat for crunch. Back to the GPS.  While I was playing with it, another thought struck me.  Garmin had better get into the cell phone business, or go bust.  This thing looks like an iPhone, and I'm told iPhones  have the GPS built in already, right?  Damn, if I'd waited another 6 months, I prolly buy this Garmin for $12.95 from Woot.  One other thing.  I forgot. Never mind.

In Passing

In Passing

THE MORNING AFTER  Gawd, no loud noises, please

Standup Comedy “ Boston Globe Calls Election For Coakley Coakley eking out a 50-49 victory. Barney Frank Deals Potential Death Blow to Obamacare But since Scott Brown has won and the Republicans now have 41 votes in the Senate, that approach is no longer appropriate. Reid promises to press ahead on health care ...  despite the loss of a Massachusetts Senate seat to a Republican. [Aside: If he even runs, Reid will lose his Senate seat this year.  What has he to show for it?  Nada,  Zip. Zilch.  No legacy as Senate Majority Leader but abject failure] Save the planet from GHG’s – use astroturf? Now according to this press release from UC Irvine, green spaces in cities are bad for the planet….but wait, what about the UHI offset? Can I buy grass credit certificates? Rethinking Bush: A Year Later, How the MSM Cracked Up At times consciously and even triumphally, the media increasingly abused the traditional journalistic standards of independence and neutrality in favor of functioning as a virtual arm of the liberal Democratic Party. They took on, in effect, a new and disturbing identity. Welcome, Instapundit readers – and I assure you, I don’t ever want to get on Glenn’s bad side.  I heard that he once linked a site in Reno, just to watch it crash… QOTD "And the message we need to send in dealing with terrorists: Our tax dollars should pay for weapons to stop them and not lawyers to defend them." From Scott Brown's victory speech (rough paraphrase): ”

Hitler finds out Brown won ...

Sold!

China removed as top priority for spies

Inconceivable

“ The White House National Security Council recently directed U.S. spy agencies to lower the priority placed on intelligence collection for China, amid opposition to the policy change from senior intelligence leaders who feared it would hamper efforts to obtain secrets about Beijing's military and its cyber-attacks. ~ The decision downgrades China from "Priority 1" status, alongside Iran and North Korea, to "Priority 2," which covers specific events such as the humanitarian crisis after the Haitian earthquake or tensions between India and Pakistan.  [Full] ” When former New York Mayor  Ed Koch said he would vote for Bush in 2004, because it's  not safe to vote for democrats now ("The Democratic Party just doesn't have the stomach to go after terrorists."), he was joined by others, like Andrew Cuomo and  Zell Miller, to name a few. So, when did that switch get flicked?  I find this decision to downgrade intelligence gathering on Red China, to a level close to that of Ireland, as inconceivable. When President Clinton opened the vault for Chinese spies, it seems (to me) to have been more cash motivated than ideological (see Cox Report).  Okay, so now China holds $800 billion in US debt.  Obama has reacted by showing his belly and spreading  hooves. But treason?  That's what this amounts to. It was expected that Obama would work to weaken the United States,on ideological grounds, because we have his words on it. Just not so quickly, and brazenly. Just last year the FBI estimated that there are over 2,600 Chinese front companies in the U.S.  And this .. Are The Chinese Better At Spying Than The KGB? It Seems Like It CBS NEWS - Panel: Chinese Spies Stealing U.S. Secrets Chinese spy who defected tells all A midsummer tale of two Chinese spies  Chinese Spies in U.S. Portend War With China .....  47,300.  and so on ... How, I wonder, can anyone square this action with Obama's oath to "... preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States?"   They can't. So Impeach the SOB.

Insensitive

Mika's cat gets out

Mika will pay for this ...

“ I’ve worked in the mainstream media for all the networks and I will say what people aren’t saying. It’s got a liberal world view. There are great people working at the networks, and they’re mostly Democrats, ok? The reason why we’ve got these extremes is a reaction to the “objective” mainstream media that is so not objective when you have most of them being Democrats or liberals running it. Ok, that’s why we have FOX. Because it [the mainstream media] wasn’t honest and because there was reaction out there - Morning Joe's Mika Brzezinski. ”    The last "news" personality to talk like this was Bernard Goldberg.  Hmmmm, exposing  CBS didn't work out all that bad for Bernie, did it?

a

We've all been there. --- Right? -Hello?

Coakley said to concede

Retwittered Twitter Matt Lewis RT @jimgeraghty: RT @GlobePolitical: BREAKING: Coakley calls Brown to concede in Senate vote, Brown adviser tells Globe.  /via @philipaklein 01/19/10 10:19 pm EST

Via Ace

Coakley Hires Franken Recount Attorney

Matthews, Maddow and Olbermann

I'm watching MSNBC, and it's just beautiful.

Radiation seems to be working

Tight Massachusetts race alarms California Dems

“ The possible loss of a U.S. Senate seat in Massachusetts has Democrats on edge 3,000 miles away in California, where party activists fear a GOP upset today could trigger a conservative wave and swamp health care reform and the 2010 midterm elections. Sen. Barbara Boxer, a three-term Democrat, faces a re-election challenge - with three Republicans vying to defeat her: former Rep. Tom Campbell, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and Assemblyman Chuck DeVore of Irvine. Boxer polled no more than 46 percent of the vote against any of the three in a Rasmussen Poll released Friday. ” Oh, sweet. So sweet, just the thought.

Marcia Coakley

Rapid Response [Mark Steyn]

Famous Yankee fan Curt Schilling “ I love the way every time Martha Coakley attempts to correct the missteps in her campaign she ends up amplifying them. Portrayed as a hack put up by the party machine who can't be bothered campaigning with real voters, she busses in Obama, Kerry and various minor Kennedys for a rally at a private school. Revealed as a dimwit who can barely string a coherent sentence together on war and foreign policy, she fires back that she only took her position on Afghanistan because the idiot primary voters made her do it. Hammered as the emblem of a lazy out-of-touch one-party state whose ruling establishment takes power for granted, she issues a press release complaining about Election Day irregularities dated the day before the election. Democrats do what they have to do, but she better have a good case here because the difference between Massachusetts and Coleman/Franken in Minnesota is that this time round the Dems' tired old jiggery-pokery is part of the rap against them. ” Here's the Corner's link, but it was so delicious I ate it all.

C&S Calls it for BROWN

Coakley Adviser Attacks Washington Democrats, Washington Democrats Attack Coakley

This just popped up

Blowout?

Waiter - more Champagny

“ Via Allahpundit, Politico reports that Democrat get-out-the-vote operatives are “stunned by the number of Democrats and Obama supporters who are waving them off, saying they’ll vote for Scott Brown.” ”

Stupid Headlines

Un twittered Twitter DRUDGE Man dies after watching AVATAR... RKOF Millions Die after watching Gone With The Wind

Dishonoring Ted. Impossible.

Coakley Loss ‘Shakespearean,’ Is Stephanopoulos a graduate of the Barbra Streisand Shakespearian School for Overwrought Performance?

“ ‘Tragedy of Greek Proportions’ ABC on Monday night again empathized with the Obama White House’s disbelief that they could lose “Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat” - Newsbusters ” Excuse the Schadenfreudal fusillade of glee to follow, but - even if you discount the "tragic" consequences Ted Kennedy's legislative career had, and still have on our country; & even if you forgive his cowardly action in letting Mary Jo Kopechne die a horrible death in order to save his sorry ass; Edward Kennedy's alliance with the Soviet Union, in an effort to undermine a sitting President Ronald Reagan was treason.  There are no names I can call him, nor graphics I can produce that are off limits, or "over the edge" of decency when it comes to him.  Sending someone like Scott Brown, who has every appearance of being an honorable man (that is to say, not a Democrat), will only partially remove the stain left on the so called "Kennedy seat."   Yes, I am having way fun today.  Kennedy owes me. I hope there's no bad hangover. I'm Unplugged

Union Thugs from SEIU?

ROLLOVER TEST

Look at this picture and record your first thought.  Then roll over with the cursor to see whether we think alike.

Ur voting Coakley, right?

TP Miniatures

Artist at work

National Endowment for the Farts?    “ Art on a roll: The amazing miniature worlds brought to life inside toilet paper tubes He said: ‘The imagery of my work comes from looking people around me going about their everyday life. ‘Sometimes I use recycled materials and find new things to do with them - this time it was the turn of toilet rolls. ‘The rolls remind me of the famous miniature boats enclosed in bottles. What?  No mens room attendant?

Here's the proof

In Passing

In Passing ...

The nation has celebrated VE DAY, and VJ DAY; is this VD DAY?

Volunteer Democrat Crowd Control Worker? “ In Other Words, He’s Perfectly Qualified To Work At MSNBC “In Scott Brown we have an irresponsible, homophobic, racist, reactionary, ex-nude model, teabagging supporter of violence against woman and against politicians with whom he disagrees.” - Keith Olbermann Rasmussen Where does that leave us? On Intrade, Brown begins Monday morning as the slight favorite in the race. However, nobody really knows who will win because it all comes down to turnout. Clearly, Brown has the more enthusiastic support and has run a better campaign. If turnout remains low, he is likely to win. Bookie pays off early, predicts Brown win – Washington Times As far as we’re concerned, this race is well and truly over,” said Paddy Power, Ireland’s largest bookmaker, 24 hours before the actual election. From the hustings .... Today I heard about an opportunity to poll watch in tomorrow’s historic special election in Massachusetts. Of course, I jumped at the chance and responded. Sowell - Are Republicans "Due"? But statisticians say he is no more likely to get a hit in this at bat than at any other time. In other words, there is no such thing as being "due." Kristol - I’ll brave her wrath, and say it: I doubt. I very much doubt ... if Scott Brown wins in Massachusetts, that Nancy Pelosi will be able to persuade 217 other House Democrats to jam Obamacare down the throats of the American people. ”